\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 241 Goertek Inc(002241) )
Event: on March 29, the company released its annual report for 2021, realizing an operating revenue of 78.221 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 35.47%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 4.275 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 50.09%; The net profit deducted from non parent company was RMB 3.832 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 38.91%. The company issued a profit distribution plan and distributed a cash dividend of 0.2 yuan / share to all shareholders. At the same time, the company released the performance forecast for the first quarter of 2022, which is expected to realize the net profit attributable to the parent company of 869966 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0-10%; The net profit deducted from non parent company was 842902 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 40-50%.
The three major businesses grew steadily, and the volume of intelligent hardware accelerated: (1) in 2021, the company achieved a revenue of 78.221 billion yuan, yoy + 35.47%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 4.275 billion yuan, yoy + 50.09%, the net interest rate was 5.46%, yoy + 0.53pct. In terms of business, the business revenue of intelligent hardware / intelligent acoustic complete machine / precision parts and components was 32.809/30.297/13.840 billion yuan respectively, yoy + 85.87% / + 13.58% / + 13.39%. The gross profit margin decreased from 16.03% to 14.13%, yoy-1.90pct. On the one hand, the proportion of precision components with high gross profit margin decreased, on the other hand, the demand for TWS headphones was lower than expected. Among them, the gross profit margin of intelligent hardware is 13.91%, yoy + 1.40pct, while the gross profit margin of intelligent acoustic whole machine / precision parts and components is yoy-4.54pct / -0.79pct. The company’s expense control ability continued to improve, and the sales / management / financial expense ratio decreased by 0.26/0.33/0.64pct respectively year-on-year. (2) 2022q1: the net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 869966 million yuan, yoy – 0-10%. Affected by the changes in the fair value of kopin’s equity investment, the non recurring profit and loss decreased by about Jiangmen Kanhoo Industry Co.Ltd(300340) million yuan year-on-year; The net profit of non parent company deduction was 842902 million yuan, yoy + 40-50%, which mainly benefited from the large volume of VR, game console and other products and the improvement of profitability.
VR has ushered in a long business cycle and the OEM leader has benefited deeply: according to the latest data of IDC, the global shipment of VR / AR headwear equipment will reach 11.2 million units in 2021, yoy + 92.1%. It is estimated that the shipment will be about 16.45 million units in 2022, yoy + 46.9%. It is expected to exceed 50 million units in 2026, with an annual compound growth rate of 35.1%. As the world’s leading manufacturer of VR machines, the company has long-term cooperation with well-known customers such as meta and Sony, and will give priority to benefiting from the rapid development of VR / AR industry. With the launch of new VR products and product iteration, the value of VR OEM of the company is expected to increase simultaneously.
The adverse factors are basically released, and the demand for TWS headphones is expected to pick up: official data show that the sales volume of airpods in 2021 was 77 million, yoy + 5.77%, and the growth rate has slowed down significantly. According to canalys report, the shipment volume of 21q2 / Q3 Apple TWS headphones (including airpods, airpodspro and beats) was 15.5/17.8 million pairs, yoy-25.8% / – 33.7%, and the market share fell to 26.5% / 24.6%; 21q4 with the listing of airpods3, the shipment volume reached 40.4 million pairs, and the market share increased to 38.9%. We believe that the outbreak of the epidemic in 2020 made the demand for TWS headphones overdrawn, and the launch of new products was postponed in 2021, resulting in lower than expected annual sales. With the launch of new products this year and the improvement of replacement demand, TWS demand is expected to pick up.
Investment suggestion: we estimate that the operating revenue of the company from 2022 to 2024 will be 105208 billion yuan, 130047 billion yuan and 164562 billion yuan respectively, the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 5.651 billion yuan, 7.193 billion yuan and 9.489 billion yuan respectively, the EPS will be 1.65 yuan, 2.11 yuan and 2.78 yuan respectively, and the corresponding PE will be 20.6 times, 16.2 times and 12.3 times respectively, so it is rated as “Buy-A” investment.
Risk tip: the sales volume of TWS headphones is lower than expected; VR terminal demand is lower than expected; Risk of shutdown caused by epidemic situation; Exchange rate fluctuation risk; Government subsidies reduce risks.
