\u3000\u3 Guangdong Shaoneng Group Co.Ltd(000601) 187 Xiamen Bank Co.Ltd(601187) )
Key investment points
Highlights of the annual report: 1. After excluding the incomparable factors of the bill asset management business income recovered through litigation last year, the growth rate of the company’s revenue continued to rise in 21 years, with a year-on-year growth rate of 9.6%. At the same time, under the profit released from the provision for asset quality improvement, the net profit continued to maintain a high growth rate, and the net profit attributable to the parent increased by 19.0% year-on-year. 2. Q4 net interest income was + 10.9% month on month, with both volume and price rising, mainly supported by interest margin. The quarterly annualized interest margin rose sharply by 10bp to 1.51% month on month, which was jointly contributed by the asset side and the liability side. The asset yield rose 8bp to 3.78% month on month. The asset yield rose significantly. It is expected to be affected by the joint influence of structure and interest rate factors. Q4 increased the investment and release of high-yield retail loans, and the retail loans increased by 4.74 billion in a single quarter, driving the increase of asset yield. At the same time, the interest rate of new loans stabilized compared with the third quarter. 3. Retail mortgage lending remained stable, and consumer business loans accelerated. The growth of corporate personal loans was mainly due to the growth of business loans and consumer loans, accounting for 28%, a significant increase over the half year. New mortgages accounted for 13.0%, basically the same as that in the first half of the year.. 4. Asset quality remains excellent. The company’s non-performing rate decreased 1bp to 0.91%, still maintaining an excellent level. From the perspective of adverse pressure in the future, the attention category of the company is still low. The company’s recognition of non-performing assets became more strict, and the coverage of provision for non-performing assets increased by 39bp to 370.6% month on month.
Insufficient annual report: 1. The core Tier-1 capital adequacy ratio decreased slightly on a month on month basis. In 2021, the core tier 1 capital adequacy ratio, tier 1 capital adequacy ratio and capital adequacy ratio were 10.47%, 11.77% and 16.40% respectively, with a chain comparison of – 9bp, – 14bp and + 212bp.
Investment suggestion: as a distinctive urban commercial bank, the company has 2022e and 2023e Pb 0.77x/0.70x; PE 6.82x/5.93x (Urban Commercial Bank Pb 0.71x/0.63x; pe6.02x / 5.33x), Xiamen Bank Co.Ltd(601187) is located in a region with strong economy, decentralized and balanced ownership structure (Xiamen Finance Bureau and Fubang financial holding both hold about 20%), the loans are concentrated in manufacturing and wholesale and retail industries, the loan pricing is better than that of the same industry, and the burden of asset quality stock is cleared. It is recommended to pay active attention.
Adjustment of profit forecast: according to the annual report of 2021, we adjusted the profit forecast. It is estimated that the operating revenue in 2022 / 2023 / 2024 will be RMB 6.070/71.22/8.166 billion (the previous value is 67.73/74.79 / – 100 million), with a growth rate of 14.2% / 17.3% / 14.7%; The net profit was RMB 1.3 billion / 2.75 billion, accounting for 1.3-2.75% of the parent value. Adjustment of core assumptions: 1 Considering that the policy continues to guide financial institutions to transfer profits to entities and the net interest margin of the industry is under pressure, the corporate loan yield is adjusted to 4.98% / 4.98% / 4.98%; The bond investment yield is 2.60% / 2.60% / 2.60%. 2. The company’s deposits are facing increasingly fierce peer competition pressure, and the interest payment rate is slightly increased, and the adjusted deposit interest payment rate is 2.35% / 2.35% / 2.35%. 3. The asset quality of the company is good, and the subsequent non-performing pressure is small. The provision expenditure / average loan is adjusted to 0.70% / 0.70% / 0.70%.
Risk tip: the economic downturn exceeded expectations and the company’s operation was less than expected.
