\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 982 Hunan Xiangjia Animal Husbandry Company Limited(002982) )
Event: the company released its annual report for 2021. The company achieved a revenue of 3.006 billion yuan in 2021, a year-on-year increase of 37.26%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 256786 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of - 85.26%. Among them, 2021q4 achieved revenue of 820 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 25.29%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 36 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 779.68%.
The sales volume of frozen fresh meat maintained a high increase, and the live poultry business continued to suffer losses. In 2021, the company sold 76000 tons of chilled products, a year-on-year increase of + 22.2%; The sales revenue reached 1.826 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 15.04%; The gross profit margin was 25.01% (year-on-year -13.21pct). We expect that the main reasons for the decline of gross profit margin are: (1) the rising cost of raw materials; (2) Pork production recovered, white feather broiler production increased significantly, and market competition intensified. In 2021, the company sold 363702 million live birds, a year-on-year increase of + 37.24%; The sales revenue was 767 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 53.14%; The average sales price was 11.45 yuan / kg, a year-on-year increase of + 9.98%, and the gross profit margin was - 1.47%, a year-on-year increase of + 3PCT. Although the average sales price has recovered, the price of raw materials is still rising at a high level, and the live poultry business is still at a loss.
Recovery of profitability and continuous market development. The gross profit margin of 21q4 company was 17.05%, with an increase of 6.73pct, and the sales expense rate was 10.87%, with an increase of 4.23pct; The gross sales difference was 6.18%, with an increase of 2.5pct. We expect that the main reasons are: (1) the price of 21q4 yellow chicken rose; (2) The company increased market development and new channel expansion. The profit side of 21q4 company reversed its losses, and the net interest rate attributable to the parent company was 4.37%, an increase of 5.17pct at the same time.
Promote the business of live poultry and frozen fresh meat and adhere to diversified development. In 2022, the company's commercial broiler production and breeding maintained a steady expansion, with an annual breeding capacity of 75 million feathers. It is expected that the breeding capacity will reach 100 million feathers in 2022. Meanwhile, the company's Shandong Taimiao 1.5 million feather standardized duck farm, 100000 feather breeding pigeon breeding base, Xiangjia Juyou 100000 ton Shimen citrus intelligent optimization center have been completed and put into operation. In terms of pigs, the construction of 10000 breeding pigs breeding project, 200000 commercial pig farm project and 1 million pigs slaughtered annually and deep-processing project of meat products to be constructed by the company's subsidiary Hunan Taimiao Xianfeng Food Co., Ltd. continues to be promoted, and it is expected to be put into operation in 2022. In terms of eggs, the company acquired 70% equity of Hunan Sanjian agriculture and animal husbandry to layout the egg business. In terms of prefabricated dishes, the company invested to set up a holding subsidiary, Hunan Xiangjia gourmet Heart Food Co., Ltd., and began to set foot in the field of cooked food and prefabricated dishes.
Investment suggestion: maintain the "overweight" rating. Considering that the pig breeding projects may be put into operation in succession in 22 years, the prefabricated vegetable projects are advancing steadily, and the price of yellow chicken is on the rise, but the rising price of raw materials and the expansion of the company's multi-business and multi-channel may suppress the short-term profit margin, we expect the company's revenue in 22-24 years to be 3.868/45.83/5.372 billion yuan respectively (38.19/44.89 yuan in the previous 22-23 years), and the net profit to be 1.41/2.47/322 million yuan respectively, EPS is 1.38/2.42/3.16 yuan respectively (1.95 and 3.05 yuan in the previous 22-23 years), corresponding to the current PE of 31x, 18x and 14x, maintaining the "overweight" rating.
Risk warning: repeated global outbreaks; The risk of bird disease; Product price fluctuation risk.
