\u3000\u30 Shenzhen Zhenye(Group)Co.Ltd(000006) 83 Inner Mongoliayuan Xing Energy Company Limited(000683) )
In 2021, the stripped assets focused on the main business, and the net profit attributable to the parent increased significantly, maintaining the "buy" rating
According to the company's annual report, the company achieved an operating revenue of RMB 12.149 billion in 2021, a year-on-year increase of + 57.81%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 4.951 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 717111%; The non net profit attributable to the parent company was 2.829 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 368161%. Non recurring gains and losses are mainly due to the divestiture of 70% equity of Boyuan coal chemical industry and 80% equity of Boyuan Lianhua chemical industry in 2021 in order to focus on the main business of natural alkali. In the future, the company will control Yingen mining by means of equity acquisition and capital increase, build an 8.6 million ton natural alkali project, and firmly optimistic about the long-term growth of the company. We increased the profit forecast for 20222023 and added the profit forecast for 2024. It is estimated that the company's net profit attributable to the parent company will be 3.523 (+ 7.01), 4.033 (+ 176) and 4.838 billion yuan respectively, corresponding to EPS of 0.96 (+ 0.19), 1.10 (+ 0.05) and 1.32 yuan respectively. The current share price corresponds to PE of 10.0, 8.8 and 7.3 times respectively, maintaining the "buy" rating.
With the support of steady growth, the soda ash boom resumed upward, and the Q1 performance forecast of the company exceeded expectations
In Q1 2022, the company expects to realize a net profit attributable to the parent company of 750790 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 125.19% - 137.20%, and the performance is better than expected. In Q4 of 2021, affected by the downturn of float glass boom, the transaction volume of high priced soda ash decreased significantly month on month. According to the company's annual report, the company's natural alkali inventory reached 188900 tons at the end of 2021, a year-on-year increase of + 109.79%. In Q1 2022, under the background of steady growth, the downstream demand for soda ash, including float glass, remained high. After the downstream consumed the original inventory, it replenished the inventory again, and the soda ash boom resumed upward. Q1 China held a large-scale event and the company's natural alkali unit was overhauled. Although the output of natural alkali decreased, the original inventory fully supported the company's delivery orders. At the same time, the prices of soda ash and urea continued to rise, which fully benefited the company, and the performance of Q1 exceeded expectations.
The new production capacity of the industry or delayed production, and the shortage of soda ash supply may intensify in 2022
According to the data of Baichuan Yingfu, the 200000 ton new capacity of Zhongyan hongsifang was originally expected to be put into operation in H1 in 2022, which is now postponed to the end of 2022; Jiangsu Debang's Shanghai Pudong Development Bank Co.Ltd(600000) ton relocation capacity was originally expected to be put into operation in H1 in 2022, but now it has also been postponed to the end of 2022. On the demand side, the daily melting capacity of float glass did not decrease significantly in Q1 under the background of steady growth. At the same time, the photovoltaic industry continues to boom, and photovoltaic glass continues to add ignition production lines, driving the demand for soda ash. As the production of new capacity slows down and the demand increases, we expect the tight supply of soda ash to further intensify in 2022, the price of soda ash is expected to continue to rise in the future, and the company, as the leader of natural soda, is expected to fully benefit.
Risk tips: the macroeconomic recovery is less than expected, the approval of project indicators is delayed, and the project construction is less than expected.
