\u3000\u30 China High-Speed Railway Technology Co.Ltd(000008) 95 Henan Shuanghui Investment & Development Co.Ltd(000895) )
Event: on March 28, the company released its annual report for 2021, with annual revenue of 66.798 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of – 9.65%; Q4 was 15.753 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of – 13.31%. The annual net profit attributable to the parent company was 4.866 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of – 22.21%; Q4 was 1.413 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 7.28%. The annual basic EPS is 1.40 yuan.
Affected by the downward trend of pork prices, the revenue of main products fell year-on-year. In 2021, affected by the recovery of pig production capacity, the increase of pig supply and the sharp decline of pig price, the income of fresh products decreased significantly year-on-year; The revenue of packaged meat products decreased slightly year-on-year. Specifically, in 21 years, the revenue of packaged meat products / fresh products was 27.351/39.073 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of – 2.66% / – 19.05%, and that of 21h2 was 13.694/18.082 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of – 2.87% / – 25.78%. In 21 years, the company’s total external sales of meat products were 3.3 million tons, a year-on-year increase of + 8.3%, and that of 21q4 was 856000 tons, a year-on-year increase of + 16.1%. Among them, 15576 / 1632500 tons of packaged meat products / fresh products were sold in 21 years, with a year-on-year increase of – 1.85% / + 18.24%; 21h2 sold 7844 / 878400 tons, a year-on-year increase of – 3.62% / + 26.77%. The average sales price of packaged meat products / fresh products in 21 years was 17560 / 23934 (yuan / ton), a year-on-year increase of -0.83% / – 31.54%; The average sales price was + 174057% / 205057% year-on-year. The average sales price of fresh products decreased more than the sales growth, and the revenue decreased year-on-year; The sales volume of meat products decreased slightly, and the average price was basically flat. In the past 21 years, the company purchased 9.321 billion yuan of split meat from ROTEX, a year-on-year increase of – 41.85%, and 889 million yuan in 21q4, a year-on-year increase of – 84.74%. The price of pork in China fell sharply. The company took the initiative to reduce the procurement of raw materials from the United States and optimize the cost structure. By the end of 2021, the company had 18947 dealers, with a year-on-year increase of + 9.17%, including 6196 dealers in the south of the Yangtze River, with a year-on-year increase of + 4.38%; There are 12751 in the north of the Yangtze River, with a year-on-year increase of + 11.66%, and the downstream channels have been steadily expanded.
Affected by the decline in income, various expenses could not be effectively apportioned, and the gross profit margin decreased slightly. In the 21st year, the company adjusted the transportation expenses from sales expenses to operating costs. After retroactive adjustment of the data of the 20th year, the gross profit margin of sales in the 21st year was 15.35%, year-on-year -0.53ppt, the sales expense rate was 2.80%, year-on-year + 0.58ppt, and the gross sales difference was 12.55%, year-on-year -1.11ppt. The main reason is that the decline in pork prices has led to a decline in revenue, and various costs and sales expenses can not be effectively diluted, resulting in a slight decline in the gross sales difference. The management expense ratio of the company in 21 years was 1.62%, with a year-on-year rate of -0.26ppt (21q4 was 0.72%, with a year-on-year rate of -1.58ppt). The R & D expense rate was 0.21%, year-on-year + 0.09ppt (21q4 was 0.22%, year-on-year + 0.05ppt), which was due to the increase of R & D projects. The financial expense rate was -0.02%, year-on-year -0.06ppt (21q4 was -0.12%, year-on-year -0.19ppt), which was due to the increase of bank interest income.
Investment suggestion: it is estimated that the company will achieve a revenue of 73.124/78.462/87.783 billion yuan and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 62.08/69.22/7.869 billion yuan in 22-24 years, equivalent to EPS of 1.79/2.00/2.27 yuan respectively. At present, the stock price corresponds to 16 / 14 / 13 times of PE in 22-24 years. The current valuation of the company is equivalent to the 16 times valuation level of the meat products sector in 2022 (wind unanimously predicted). It is expected that the concentration of pig production will increase in the future, the downturn of pork price will be improved, the high opening rate of the company’s slaughtering business will be maintained, and the income of fresh products is expected to resume growth; The meat products business will maintain good growth and maintain the “recommended” rating.
Risk tips: industry competition intensifies, cost rises exceed expectations, food safety problems, etc
