\u3000\u3 Guocheng Mining Co.Ltd(000688) 198 Beijing Balance Medical Technology Co.Ltd(688198) )
Core view
Event: Recently, the company announced that the clinical trial of Renato interventional valve registration of its own heart valve product has been completed, and all patients have been enrolled. The operation success rate of all cases in the group is 100%, and there are no patients transferred to surgical thoracotomy. The clinical trial was led by Zhongshan Hospital Affiliated to Fudan University. After 10 months, 15 well-known head hospitals of cardiac surgery in China have successfully completed the interventional middle valve treatment of more than 150 patients.
The company's ball expanded interventional valve middle valve is very innovative and has very high clinical value. 1) In terms of the scope of valve treatment, among the listed domestic interventional valves in China, only the problems of aortic valve can be solved, while the re damage of mitral valve and tricuspid valve can not be solved by intervention. The company's interventional middle valve products can cover 3 different valve positions (aortic valve, mitral valve and tricuspid valve) and 5 different implantation paths (via apex, femoral artery, femoral vein, right jugular vein and right atrium), which greatly expands the treatment methods and choices of patients with valve re damage. 2) From the perspective of intervention methods, most of the valves listed in China are self expanding valves, and only Edward's family is ball expanded valves. Compared with the self expanding valve, the ball expanded valve has obvious advantages. As the first ball expanded interventional valve in China, the company will further fill the gap in China and is expected to import and replace it quickly in the future. 3) In terms of success rate and product design, at present, the success rate of Renato's whole group of cases is 100%, and there are no patients transferred to surgical thoracotomy, which once again proves the maturity of the company's ball expansion interventional technology. The unique product design of the company's interventional valve realizes the valve leaf opening and closing mode exactly the same as the company's surgical bovine pericardial biological valve, which also means that the company's interventional valve is expected to achieve the same durability as the surgical valve. In general, We believe that the innovation level and clinical value of the company's interventional valve are very high.
The market space of interventional valve is large, and the company has realized the layout in the whole heart valve position and all age stage. From the perspective of market space, interventional valves are mainly aimed at patients who are damaged after implanting biological valves. Edward and Medtronic surgical valves were listed in China around 2012 / 13. At present, it has been about 10 years. With the extension of patients' life, the possibility of valve damage increases, and the number of patients who need secondary valve replacement will gradually increase in the future, which means that the population of indications for valve in valve will continue to expand, Market space is worth looking forward to. On the other hand, in the field of heart valves, the company's competitive advantage is becoming more and more obvious. In addition to the interventional valve, the company's surgical valve has been listed; Interventional aortic valve (TAVR) and interventional pulmonary valve are in the clinical stage, and are expected to be deployed in the field of mitral valve in the future, which means that the company has basically deployed in the full valve position and full age stage of heart valve treatment, and its competitive advantage is very obvious.
The company is a platform enterprise of biological tissue materials, and its long-term development is worth looking forward to. In addition to the long-term development of the company's core business of cardiac tablets and cardiac valve prostheses, the company also believes that there is great room for the development of the company's business of cardiac tablets and biological valve prostheses in the future.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions
We expect the net profit attributable to the parent company in 202123 after deducting share based payment to be RMB 119 / 159 / 237 million. Considering that the company has sufficient reserve pipelines (valve in valve, TAVR interventional valve, ophthalmic patch, vascular patch, etc.) and the clinical trial is progressing smoothly in the future, we maintain the early target price of RMB 207.59 and maintain the "buy" rating according to the DCF valuation method.
Risk tips
Risks caused by R & D failure; Risk of product sales falling short of expectations; The risk of price decline caused by volume procurement and intensified competition; Valve market share is lower than expected; And the risk that the assumption does not meet the expectation is unfavorable to the valuation.
