\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 548 Shenzhen Expressway Company Limited(600548) )
Key investment points
Excluding the impact of one-time profit and loss, the overall profit of 21 years is in line with the expectation
Benefiting from the contribution of the newly opened outer ring expressway phase I to the recovery of incremental toll revenue and the revenue of the original toll road, Shenzhen Expressway Company Limited(600548) 2021 achieved a net profit attributable to the parent company of 2.606 billion yuan, an increase of 26.9% year-on-year, of which the net profit attributable to the parent company of 21q4 in a single quarter was 679 million yuan. Considering the company's free access measures during the epidemic in the first half of the year in the same period of 2020, combined with the understanding of policies, the compensation income is confirmed, and the overall performance is in line with expectations.
Steady recovery of toll road profits
By the end of 2020, the contribution of road production to the operation of the company was increased, and the toll revenue was superimposed on the original toll road revenue. In 2021, the company's toll road business revenue was 5.893 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 34.3%; The segment net profit was 2.246 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 47.7%, an increase of 35.6% over 2019. Looking forward to the future, the main line of the airport interchange and Hezhou section of the company's holding project along the river will be opened at the end of 2021, and the second phase of the outer ring road will be opened to traffic on New Year's Day 2022. In addition, the reconstruction and expansion project of Yangmao Expressway with a 25% stake will be officially opened on December 16, 2021, which is expected to further contribute to the company's profits.
Orderly expansion of large environmental protection business
In terms of solid waste resource management business, the revenue in 2021 increased by 3.18% year-on-year to 870 million yuan, mainly due to the increase of corresponding environmental protection revenue of Lande environmental protection and qiantai company. In terms of clean energy business, the revenue in 2021 decreased by 57.2% year-on-year to 713 million yuan, which was mainly affected by the high tide base of wind turbine rush loading in 2020 and the new consolidation of wind power projects such as wooden base. In terms of other environmental protection businesses, the revenue in 2021 increased by about 200 million yuan year-on-year, mainly due to the new business income from battery trade of qiantai company and operation and maintenance and management of wind farm projects related to Nanjing wind power. Looking forward to the future, we believe that the company will continue to work in the field of solid waste recycling and clean energy, comply with the general trend of national policies and achieve orderly business expansion.
Pay attention to shareholder returns and expect considerable dividend returns from 2021 to 2023
The company has maintained a stable dividend policy for many years. In 2021, the company plans to distribute a cash dividend (before tax) of 0.62 yuan / share to all shareholders, accounting for 55.88% of the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021 after excluding the investment income of investors who should pay perpetual bonds. It is estimated that the dividend rate corresponding to the closing price of 2022 / 3 / 29 is 6.6%. According to the company's shareholder return plan for 20212023, the company promises that the annual cash dividend will not be less than 55% of the distributable profit from 20212023, and the dividend income is expected to be considerable.
Profit forecast and valuation
Regardless of the impact of the progress of the machine load reconstruction and expansion project, we expect the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 to be 2.847 billion yuan, 3.064 billion yuan and 3.283 billion yuan respectively, corresponding to 7.2 times, 6.7 times and 6.2 times of PE respectively. Considering the company's outstanding geographical advantages and strong synergy of dual main businesses, in addition, the dividend commitment highlights the high dividend value and maintains the "overweight" rating
Risk tip: capital expenditure has increased significantly; Potential diversion impact of stock and newly opened parallel sections; The performance of environmental protection business is lower than expected.
