\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 241 Goertek Inc(002241) )
In 2021, the company’s revenue and net profit achieved steady growth. The company achieved an operating revenue of 78.221 billion yuan in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 35.47%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 4.275 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 50.09%. In the fourth quarter, the revenue was 25.432 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.52%; In the fourth quarter, the net profit attributable to the parent company was 942 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.22%. In 2021, when the growth rate of global smart phones slowed down, the company always adhered to the development strategy of “parts + finished products”, actively promoted the development of precision components such as acoustics, microelectronics, optics and structural parts, and smart hardware products such as smart headphones, virtual / augmented reality, smart wear and smart home, continuously improved customer service level and continuously improved customer relations. At the same time, the company adheres to independent R & D and technological innovation, continues to invest in R & D, and actively arranges emerging technology fields such as SIP system level packaging technology, optical waveguide technology and nano imprint technology, so as to continuously enhance the core competitiveness of the company.
VR, game console and other intelligent hardware help improve the profitability of 2022q1. The company released the performance forecast for the first quarter of 2022. It is expected that the company will realize the net profit attributable to the parent company of 869 ~ 966 million in 22q1, a year-on-year decrease of 0 ~ 10%; The net profit attributable to the parent company increased by 4.2 ~ 802 billion year-on-year. 2022q1’s revenue growth in VR and game console products has driven the improvement of overall profitability. At the same time, due to the impact of changes in the fair value of the company’s kopin Corporation’s equity investment, the non recurring profit and loss decreased by 300 ~ 340 million year-on-year in 2022q1, resulting in a significant year-on-year increase in 2022q1’s net profit deducted from non attributable parent company.
Adhere to vigorously invest in R & D, and multiple R & D projects go hand in hand. In 2021, the company’s R & D expenses were 4.301 billion, with a R & D expense rate of 5.50%, accounting for 15.40% of the latest net assets. At present, the company has a number of R & D projects in progress, including MEMS sensors, VR / AR precision optical devices and modules, vr virtual reality headwear all-in-one machine, TWS intelligent wireless headphones and intelligent wireless lightweight ar glasses, covering many fast-growing segments such as AR / VR and TWS.
Quest2 has continuously won the first place in VR head display market, and the company is expected to benefit deeply from the industry. According to the data of steam platform, oculusquest2 has continuously won the first place in VR head display market since February 2021. It was defined as “the first mainstream VR device” at the meta2020q4 revenue meeting. In February 2022, the market share of quest2 in steamvr platform was 47.09%, which continued to reach a new high, with a month on month increase of 1.07pct. At the same time, quest2 is also the only headwear integrated model with positive month on month growth on steamvr platform in February 2022. Subsequently, with the continuous emergence of popular applications, a good software ecology is expected to support the steady development of VR / AR industry. VR business is one of the most important growth points of the company. We believe that with the climbing of yield and efficiency, the profit margin will be further improved, and it may continue to deliver growth momentum for the company in the future.
The share of game consoles was further increased, and wearable and intelligent acoustic machines were further driven. We expect goer’s share of game consoles in Japan this year to increase significantly compared with last year, which is expected to bring new increment. As the main supplier of TWS earphones for North American customers, the company’s shipment volume is expected to increase steadily this year. At present, the pessimistic expectation of TWS earphones in the market has long been reflected in the stock price, and the subsequent recovery of sales volume is expected to have a positive impact. The share of acoustic components in Android customers is expected to continue to increase this year. MEMS microphones will benefit from the continued high growth of wearable products such as headphones and watches this year, which will bring new profit increments.
Profit forecast and valuation suggestions: the company firmly grasps the innovation opportunity of intelligent acoustic complete machine, gives play to its existing competitive advantage, integrates supply chain resources, serves customers at home and abroad, and continues to consolidate the company’s leading position in the field of global acoustic optoelectronic overall solutions. We predict that the operating revenue of 2022e / 2023e / 2024e company will reach 101688125076151.342 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 30.0% / 23.0% / 21.0%. The net profit attributable to parent company of 2022e / 2023e / 2024e company will reach 60.09/74.28/9.092 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 40.6% / 23.6% / 22.4%. At present, the corresponding PE of stock price is 19.4/15.7/12.8x, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk tip: the downstream demand is less than expected, and the industry competition intensifies.
