\u3000\u3 Guangdong Shaoneng Group Co.Ltd(000601) 666 Pingdingshan Tianan Coal Mining Co.Ltd(601666) )
Event: the company released its annual performance report for 2021, and achieved an operating revenue of 29.698 billion yuan in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 32.6%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 2.92 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 110.61%. The net profit attributable to the shareholders of the listed company after deducting non recurring profits and losses was 2.919 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 100.14%. The basic earnings per share was 1.26 yuan, and the operating net cash flow was 8.437 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 222.79%.
The price of commercial coal in the coal sector increased year-on-year, driving the rapid growth of net profit. In 2021, the coal sector achieved an operating revenue of 28.56 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 32.61%, accounting for 96.16% of the total revenue. In terms of output, the raw coal output was 28.85 million tons (- 6.39%); In terms of sales volume, the company’s total sales of commercial coal in 2021 were 30.651 million tons (- 2.74%), including 14.117 million tons (- 6.24%) of thermal coal and 11.99 million tons (2.5%) of coking coal. In terms of sales unit price, the comprehensive selling price of commercial coal was 915.99 yuan / ton (a year-on-year increase of 36.9%), and the unit prices of power coal and clean coal reached 548.2 yuan / ton (a year-on-year increase of 29.1%) and 1596.4 yuan / ton (a year-on-year increase of 35.5%) respectively. In terms of cost, the cost of commercial coal produced by the company was 655.0 yuan / ton (a year-on-year increase of 38.1%), with a year-on-year increase of 180.81 yuan / ton, mainly due to the increase of material and labor costs. In terms of gross profit, the company’s gross profit per ton of commercial coal was 261.0 yuan / ton, a year-on-year increase of 66.1 yuan / ton, and the gross profit margin was 28.5% (a year-on-year decrease of -0.64pct).
The supply and demand pattern of high-quality main coking coal is tight, and the company’s scarce resources will continue to benefit. China’s coking coal continues to have a capacity gap, which is basically supplemented by imports from Australia, Outer Mongolia and Canada. Since 2019, China’s new coking coal production capacity has been insufficient. This year, affected by the overseas situation and epidemic situation, the import of coking coal fluctuates greatly and the supply is weak. As the largest producer and supplier of low sulfur and high-quality main coking coal in China, the company will benefit from the continuous rise in the price of scarce coking coal resources, The company is expected to maintain high profitability this year.
A large proportion of cash dividends highlight the investment value: according to the announcement, the net profit available for distribution attributable to the shareholders of the listed company in the consolidated statements of the company in 2021 is 2.92 billion yuan, and the cash dividend to be distributed is 1.76 billion yuan, accounting for 60.2% of the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021, corresponding to a dividend of 0.76 yuan per share (including tax). Calculated by the closing share price of 15.99 yuan on March 29, 2022, the dividend rate is 4.8%. The dividend of the company has exceeded 60% for three consecutive years, highlighting the long-term investment value.
Profit forecast and investment rating: it is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 will be RMB 5.56/61.2/6.6 billion respectively, and the current share price corresponds to PE of 6.7/6.1/5.6 times. The first coverage gives the company a buy rating.
Risk tip: macroeconomic growth is less than expected, coal prices have fallen sharply, etc.
