\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 202 Xinjiang Goldwind Science And Technology Co.Ltd(002202) )
The company released the annual report of 2021, and the profit increased by 17% year-on-year; The company’s product structure is optimized, the number of orders on hand is abundant, and the wind farm business is growing steadily; Give overweight rating.
Key points supporting rating
The profit in 2021 increased by 17% year-on-year: the company released the annual report of 2021, realizing a revenue of 50.571 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 10.12%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 3.457 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.65%, and the net profit deducted was 2.993 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.33%. In 2021q4, the net profit attributable to the parent company was 444 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 50.34% and a month on month decrease of 61.85%. The company plans to pay a dividend of 0.25 yuan per share (including tax).
The trend of large-scale fans is obvious, and the gross profit margin of large units has increased: the company sold 10.68gw of fans throughout the year, a year-on-year decrease of 17.39%, of which the sales capacity of 2S model has decreased by 61.60%, and the sales volume of 3S / 4S and 6S / 8s models has increased by 210.27% and 305.01% respectively year-on-year. The newly launched medium speed permanent magnet series has been delivered quickly, with a sales capacity of 108.50mw. The company’s revenue from fans and parts decreased by 14.42% year-on-year to 39.932 billion yuan. The annual gross profit margin of the sector increased by 3.30pcts to 17.71% year-on-year, 2.63pcts lower than that of 2021h1 and 3.88pcts lower than that of 2021h2.
The wind farm business grew steadily and the gross profit margin of wind power services became positive: the company’s annual equity grid connection capacity of wind farms increased by 1408mw, transferred 827mw, accumulated 6068mw and under construction 2595mw; The power generation revenue was 5.327 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 32.56%, and the gross profit margin decreased by 0.37 PCTs year-on-year. Wind power service revenue decreased by 7.93% to RMB 4.082 billion, and the gross profit margin became positive to 12.04%. Since 2021, the company has reduced the scale of overseas EPC business to control risks, and the gross profit margin of the sector is expected to remain normal.
Abundant orders on hand: by the end of 2021, the company’s orders on hand for fans totaled 17.43gw, a year-on-year increase of 8.27%; Among them, the external order is 16.87gw, and the signed contract to be executed order is 13.27gw. Abundant orders on hand guide the company’s future shipments to continue to improve; In terms of split order models, the order capacity of 3S / 4S models reaches 8.83gw, accounting for 52.34%, and the trend of large-scale is obvious; The order capacity of medium speed permanent magnet models reaches 4.82gw, accounting for 28.55%, which is expected to increase rapidly.
Valuation
Under the current share capital, combined with the company’s annual report and industry demand, we adjusted the company’s predicted earnings per share from 2022 to 2024 to 0.92/1.06/1.20 yuan (the original prediction from 2022 to 2024 was 0.96/1.08 / – yuan), corresponding to a P / E ratio of 14.2/12.4/10.9 times; Give overweight rating.
Main risks of rating
Price competition exceeds expectations; The price of raw materials is higher than expected; Industrial policy risk; Large scale cost reduction does not meet expectations; Wind power demand does not meet expectations; Overseas development fails to meet expectations; The impact of covid-19 epidemic exceeded expectations.
