\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 519 Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) )
Event description
The company announced that the main financial data of 2021 and the main operation in the first quarter of 2022: the total operating revenue in 2021 was 109.46 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.71%; The net profit was 52.46 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.34%. In the first quarter of 2022, the company expects to achieve a total operating revenue of about 33.1 billion yuan, an increase of about 18% year-on-year; The net profit attributable to the shareholders of the listed company is expected to be about 16.6 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of about 19%.
Event comments
The growth accelerated month on month in 2021q4, and 2022 achieved a good start as scheduled. In 2021, the company achieved an operating revenue of 109.46 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.71%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 52.46 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.34%. Slightly higher than the performance forecast, in which the operating revenue of single 21q4 was 32.411 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.0%, and the net profit attributable to the parent was 15.194 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.1%, accelerating the growth month on month. The revenue and profit of 22q1 increased by about 18% / 19% year-on-year respectively, and continued the good momentum of 21q4. The main reason is that the company took the initiative to overcome difficulties, fought the “active war” with an enterprising attitude and effective measures, the product sales momentum was good, the market showed a strong sales trend, and successfully realized the “stable opening” and “good opening”.
Further enrich the product matrix and strengthen the brand image. Since the second half of last year, the company has made frequent market moves. Maotai 1935 is positioned at 1000 yuan, connecting and connecting Maotai liquor and Maotai Maotai Maotai series liquor; At the end of 2021, new Maotai treasures were released, belonging to the ultra-high-end series. The product positioning is 15 between high-quality Maotai liquor and old Maotai liquor, which is conducive to enriching the ultra-high-end and high-end product matrix and helping to upgrade the structure. In addition, the retail guide prices of Maotai new treasures and Maotai aged liquor 15 were increased by 100 / 1000 yuan to 4599 / 5999 yuan respectively. Non standard Maotai is expected to contribute volume and price in 2022.
“I Maotai” was put into trial operation on March 31, and the marketing reform took another step. According to Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) official wechat news, the “I Maotai” digital marketing app created by Maotai Liquor Co., Ltd. will be officially launched and put into trial operation on March 31, 2022. Consumers can make an appointment to purchase the year of the tiger Zodiac Maotai / Maotai 1935 / rare Maotai. Feitian Maotai will not be sold temporarily. At the same time, it will be integrated into 12 third-party e-commerce platforms to provide rush purchase information for purchasing Feitian Maotai liquor. This is the company’s digital integration, the implementation of digital marketing law, and speed up the completion of the new retail short board.
The operation in 2021 exceeded the target at the beginning of the year, and the growth is expected to accelerate in 2022. 2021 is the first year of the 14th five year plan. The business goal of 2021 is to increase the total operating revenue by about 10.5% over the previous year, and the total operating revenue in 2021 exceeds the target at the beginning of the year. In addition, the performance is expected to accelerate in 2022. 1) Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) marketing reform is expected to be strong: first, the new Commander takes office to convey development confidence to the market, especially answering questions about the reform of marketing system and price system concerned by the market; second, constrained by capacity supply, the output growth of Maotai base liquor is slow from 16 to 18, and the bottleneck of volume growth in 2022 is expected to be broken. Third, the increase in the proportion of direct channels and the prominent effect of price increase of non-standard products have helped Maotai accelerate its growth.
Investment advice
In the short term, the setting tone is stable, the proportion of direct marketing channels is increased, and the price of non-standard products is increased. It will end smoothly in 2021. Looking forward to 2022, the new commander will take office, and the marketing reform may be accelerated to become a new growth point of performance. In the medium and long term, we believe that the scarcity of Maotai and the safety cushion built by the moat with high channel profits have helped the company grow continuously. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 will be 52.475 billion, 60.845 billion and 70.488 billion, and the EPS will be 41.77 yuan, 48.44 yuan and 56.11 yuan respectively. Corresponding to the current stock price, PE will be 39 times, 34 times and 29 times respectively. Maintain the “buy” rating.
There are risks
Food safety risk, the risk of sharp decline in the price of high-end wine caused by the macroeconomic downturn, and the development of the epidemic exceeded expectations
