\u3000\u3 Guangdong Shaoneng Group Co.Ltd(000601) 633 Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) )
In 2021, the company’s total revenue was 136.4 billion yuan, and has resumed high growth since 2017
On March 29, 2022, Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) released the annual report of 2021. The total revenue of the company in 2021 was 136.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 32%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 6.73 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 25%. The company’s total automobile sales volume in 2021 was 1.28 million, a year-on-year increase of + 15%. The upward model structure has driven the company’s single car price to increase. In 2021, the single car price exceeded 106000 yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 15%. Sales growth superimposed on the upward model structure, and the company’s total revenue has reopened high growth since 2017. Considering that the shortage of chips still exists and the volume of newly launched models is limited, we lowered the company’s profit forecast for 20222023 and added a profit forecast for 2024. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 20222024 will be 8.1 (- 25) / 121 (- 38) / 17.7 billion yuan respectively, EPS will be 0.88 (- 0.26) / 1.31 (- 0.41) / 1.91 yuan / share, and the current share price corresponding to PE in 20222024 will be 30.8/20.6/14.1 times respectively. After the core shortage problem is alleviated, the company’s performance elasticity may be large, Maintain the “buy” rating.
In 2021, tanks and Euler contributed the main increment, and the equity incentive fee affected the profit growth
The company’s total vehicle sales in 2021 increased by 165000 compared with the total sales in 2020, of which the sales of Euler increased by 79000 compared with that in 2020, and the sales of new brand tanks in 2021 increased by 85000, contributing to the main increment. The newly launched models such as Haval beast and latte DHT are in continuous volume. The company’s gross profit margin in 2021 was 16.2%, down 1pcts year-on-year, which was mainly affected by the inclusion of transportation expenses in costs. In 2021, the company launched a new phase of equity incentive scheme, resulting in a significant increase in administrative expenses, administrative expenses / R & D expenses, with a year-on-year increase of 58% / 46% respectively, and the rate of administrative expenses / R & D expenses, with a year-on-year increase of 0.5/0.3pcts respectively. The company’s equity structure increased by about RMB 4.0 billion, and the net profit of the company increased by about RMB 4.0 billion year-on-year after the year-on-year incentive.
The layout of overseas markets is accelerated, and many new models such as Harvard cool dog will be launched soon
In 2021, the company actively explored new markets such as Thailand, Egypt and Brunei, with annual overseas sales of 139000 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of + 103%; Overseas revenue was 16.2 billion yuan, accounting for 12%, with a year-on-year increase of + 142%. In 2022, the company plans to launch new models such as Harvard cool dog, tank 700, Euler lightning cat and salon mechatron, and the performance is expected to reach a new high.
Risk tip: the demand for cars at home and abroad is less than expected, the sales volume of new models is less than expected, and the expansion of overseas markets is less than expected.
