\u3000\u3 Guangdong Shaoneng Group Co.Ltd(000601) 939 China Construction Bank Corporation(601939) )
The performance is in line with expectations. In 2021, the annual revenue was 824.2 billion yuan (+ 9.0%), and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 302.5 billion yuan (+ 11.6%). In the fourth quarter, the single quarter revenue was 1998.8 billion yuan (+ 8.4%), and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 70.4 billion yuan (+ 7.9%), of which the fourth quarter revenue decreased slightly, mainly due to the slowdown in the growth of non interest income.
The net interest margin narrowed by 6bps year-on-year and increased by 1bps month on month. Net interest income increased by 5.1% in 2021, mainly due to the year-on-year narrowing of net interest margin. In 2021, both the negative assets and the negative assets were under pressure. Under the guidance of policy interest transfer, the loan yield decreased by 14bps, but the company actively increased the allocation of high-yield assets. The proportion of loans in the average balance of interest bearing assets increased by 1.7 percentage points to 63.3% compared with the beginning of the year, so the overall yield of interest bearing assets decreased by only 6bps. The competition for deposits on the liability side intensified, and the deposit cost rate increased by 8bps to 1.67%. However, the net interest margin stabilized in the fourth quarter, mainly because the asset side yield gradually stabilized, and the optimization of the self-discipline mechanism of deposit interest rate ceiling also eased the upward pressure on deposits.
Loans achieved good growth, of which the proportion of retail loans decreased. In 2021, total assets increased by 7.5%, deposits increased by 8.6% and loans increased by 12.1%, realizing good expansion. Structurally, corporate loans increased by 13.4%, retail loans by 9.1%, mortgage loans by 9.6% and bill loans by 46.5%. The proportion of bill loans at the end of the period was 2.0%, an increase of 0.5pct over the beginning of the year, the proportion of retail loans in total loans decreased by 1.1pct to 42.5% over the beginning of the year, and the proportion of mortgage loans in total loans decreased by 0.77pct to 34.1% over the beginning of the year.
The asset quality was excellent and the provision coverage was improved. The non-performing rate at the end of the period was 1.42%, down 9 BPS from the end of September, and the ratio of “non-performing / loans overdue for more than 90 days” increased to 208%. The recognition of non-performing was strengthened, and the estimated non-performing rate in 2021 was only 0.38%. The attention rate was 2.69% and the overdue rate was 0.94%, down 11bps and 14bps respectively compared with the end of June. The asset quality of the company was excellent. After the improvement of asset quality, the provision pressure decreased significantly. In 2021, the credit impairment loss decreased by 13.2% year-on-year, but the provision coverage at the end of the period reached 240%, an increase of 11pct compared with the end of September and 26pct compared with the beginning of the year.
Investment advice: maintain the profit forecast and maintain the “buy” rating.
The performance is in line with expectations, and there is still some pressure on the net interest margin in 2022. However, under the background of steady growth, the scale is expected to maintain steady expansion, and the provision pressure will drop significantly after the improvement of asset quality. We kept our profit forecast unchanged. It is estimated that its net profit from 2022 to 2024 will be 329.5 billion yuan / 354.7 billion yuan / 377 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 8.9% / 7.6% / 6.3%, corresponding to diluted eps1 32 yuan / 1.42 yuan / 1.51 yuan. The dynamic PE corresponding to the current stock price is 3.6x/3.3x/3.1x and Pb is 0.43x/0.40x/0.36x. Considering the low valuation of the company, the “buy” rating is maintained.
Risk tip: the epidemic situation is repeated, the steady growth policy is less than expected, and the economic recovery is lower than expected
