\u3000\u3 Guangdong Shaoneng Group Co.Ltd(000601) 985 China National Nuclear Power Co.Ltd(601985) )
Event:
The company issued the announcement of pre increase of performance in the first quarter of 2022. It is estimated that in the first quarter of 2022, the net profit attributable to the parent company will be RMB 2.823 ~ 3.012 billion, and the performance center will be RMB 2.917 billion; Compared with the same period of last year (before retroactive restatement), the year-on-year increase is about 58% ~ 69%; Compared with the same period of last year (after retroactive restatement), the year-on-year increase is about 50% ~ 60%.
Comments
The market electricity price has increased significantly, and the performance has high upward flexibility
According to the listing and trading results of Jiangsu electric power market within the month, the average transaction price of electric power in the market in late March was 0.4689 yuan / kWh, up nearly 0.0962 yuan / kWh compared with the same period last year, yoy + 25.81%; According to the calculation, based on the operation data of the company in 2020, under the assumption that the comprehensive average on grid electricity price increases by 0.1 yuan and the market-oriented electricity increases by 20 billion kwh, the net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to increase by 2.79 billion yuan. The increase of electricity price has significantly improved the performance of the company, and the current performance is flexible.
The commercial operation of Fuqing unit is smooth, and the main business of nuclear power is developing steadily
The world’s third and second Fuqing unit 6 designed by the third generation nuclear power of “Hualong 1” has successfully completed the 168 hour continuous operation assessment at full power on March 25, 2022, and has been successfully put into commercial operation at present; After Fuqing unit 6 was put into operation, the company’s holding of nuclear power units in operation increased to 25, and the holding of nuclear power units in operation increased from 22.549 million kW to 23.71 million KW. Benefiting from the smooth operation of the new nuclear power unit, we expect that the on grid power of the company’s nuclear power division will increase to 172.96 billion kwh in 2022, which will promote the growth of the company’s performance in 2022.
Accelerate the layout of landscape projects, and new energy contributes to the second growth point
The subsidiary China Nuclear Huineng released the first centralized procurement bidding information of photovoltaic module equipment in 2022 on February 14. The total installed capacity of China Nuclear Huineng and its subordinate project companies is expected to be 6-7.5 million KW, and the layout of new energy is accelerated as scheduled; According to the construction goal of the 14th five year plan of the company, the company aims to achieve a total installed power capacity of 56 million kilowatts by 2025, of which the installed capacity of new energy is about 30 million kilowatts. In order to achieve the planning goal, the annual growth rate of the company’s new energy installed capacity from 2022 to 2025 will reach at least 35.60%, with strong business growth.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions
It is estimated that the operating revenue of China National Nuclear Power Co.Ltd(601985) from 2021 to 2023 will be 62.367 billion yuan, 74.217 billion yuan and 76.576 billion yuan respectively, the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 8.037 billion yuan, 11.111 billion yuan and 11.931 billion yuan respectively, and the corresponding PE will be 17.42, 13.55 and 12.62 yuan respectively, maintaining the “buy” rating and the target price will be 11.27 yuan.
Risk warning: nuclear safety accident risk; Risk that the progress of nuclear power units under construction is less than expected; The risk that the development of new energy business is less than expected; Risk of weak social electricity demand; The forecast data is only the preliminary accounting of the company, and the specific data shall be subject to the first quarterly report officially disclosed by the company.
