\u3000\u3 Guangdong Shaoneng Group Co.Ltd(000601) 689 Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) )
Core view
2022q1 performance continues to grow at a high level.. The company disclosed the announcement of pre increase in 2022q1, and it is expected to achieve a revenue of RMB 3.63-3.73 billion in 2022q1, with a year-on-year increase of 50% – 54%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 346386 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 41% – 57%; The deduction of non return to parent is 340380 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 42% – 58%. From January to February 2022, the company achieved a revenue of about 2.53 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of about 60%, and a return to the parent of about 250 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of about 64%.
Accurately locate modular suppliers of multi category tracks. The company promotes the “2 + 3” industrial layout (NVH damping system, vehicle acoustic package + lightweight chassis, thermal management and intelligent driving system). 1) Thermal management has successfully developed heat pump assembly, electronic expansion valve, electronic water valve and other products, and accelerated the research and development of heat pump assembly 2.0; 2) Automotive electronics (IBS, EPS, intelligent cockpit, etc.) have blossomed in many categories; 3) Lightweight chassis system module products have successfully entered more than 10 vehicle manufacturers, including well-known traditional vehicle enterprises outside China and global mainstream new energy vehicle enterprises, and have obtained mass production orders, and the demand for new orders is in the continuous release stage. The company plans to expand the production of automotive lightweight chassis system projects, It is estimated that the annual output of 4.8 million sets of lightweight chassis system module products (1.6 million sets of lightweight subframes, 1.6 million sets of lightweight suspension systems and 1.6 million sets of lightweight alloy steering knuckles) will be realized after the full production in 2025. 4) Layout of air suspension: in November 2021, the company’s first air suspension factory was inaugurated, covering an area of 100 mu, with an annual production capacity of 2 million pieces and supporting 500000 vehicles. It is planned to start production in June 2022. At present, the company has realized single chamber (single chamber) technology and multi chamber (multi chamber) technology to provide superior comfort and ensure the handling stability of the whole vehicle.
Continue to expand customers, and the production capacity layout has entered the harvest period. Future performance can be expected: 1) continue to break through Tesla‘s product system (lightweight structural parts, interior and exterior decoration and thermal management), and accelerate the global volume of Model3 / Y; 2) Cooperate with rivian (the value of supporting bicycles is 11000 yuan), Weilai and other new forces to explore tier0 5. Cooperation mode; 3) Cooperate with Huawei on heat management related products; 4) Continue the layout of production capacity outside China.
Risk tip: the recovery of the industry is less than expected, and the R & D of new products and customer expansion are less than expected.
Investment suggestion: Tesla‘s localization of core targets will maintain the “overweight” rating
The company’s growing performance benefited from the decline in marginal costs caused by the release of production capacity and the large number of customers of core auto enterprises. Considering the short-term impact of core shortage and rising prices of raw materials, as well as the continuous emergence of medium and long-term scale effects, the previous profit forecast is maintained: the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021, 2022 and 2023 is expected to be 1.045/16.53/2.011 billion yuan respectively, the corresponding EPS is 0.95/1.50/1.82 yuan, the corresponding PE in 2022 is 37 times, and the “overweight” rating is maintained.
