\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 352 S.F.Holding Co.Ltd(002352) )
Investment logic
The direct marketing mode creates brand advantages, and “Skynet + geonet + information network” jointly builds core barriers. The company is a direct mode express delivery company, which helps to ensure service quality and timeliness. High quality service brings brand premium. Skynet, geonet and information network build intangible asset service reputation + timeliness mind. In 2021, the company completed a fixed increase of 20 billion yuan, which is mainly used for Ezhou airport construction, equipment upgrading and network resource investment, which will help to consolidate the existing business advantages and further enhance the industry position.
Acquisition of Kerry Logistics and synergy with existing business. Compared with FedEx and UPS, acquisition is the main way to expand international business. On September 28, 2021, SF completed the acquisition of 51.8% of the equity of Kerry Logistics, undertook the rich self owned logistics facilities resources of Kerry Logistics in Asia, combined with the experience of Kerry freight forwarding and customs clearance, the transportation capacity resources of Sino US routes and the accumulation of b-end customers, the utilization rate of SF fleet will be improved, and the international business will become a new growth point of performance.
Ezhou airport benchmarked Memphis to lay the foundation for future development. The Ezhou civil airport project invested and constructed by SF has started school flights and is expected to be put into use in mid-2022. After the airport transfer center is put into operation, SF’s fleet will change from small models to medium and large models, and change some point-to-point air transportation modes to hub and spoke air transportation modes. It is expected to reduce the unit operating cost of the fleet by 20%. The “hub flight” mode will improve the efficiency and double the number of cities the next day, The service quality of aging products will be further improved and consolidated.
The product system of express business has been optimized and upgraded, and the traditional advantages have been continued. The standard land transportation products originally belonging to the economic express sector have been upgraded to a new generation of SF standard express products. With the growth of business volume and the improvement of asset utilization, the gross profit margin of aging products will be improved. Preferential special distribution guides high-quality customers to upgrade to electric trademark fast products, redefines the customer base boundary, optimizes the structure, and matches the resource investment and product positioning.
Diversified businesses are in full bloom. 1) The intra city industrial spin off is listed on the main board of the Hong Kong stock exchange, and the funds raised are mainly used for main business development, replenishing working capital and broadening financing channels. 2) The high-end market and main market of express business are fully covered, and the product service matrix is rich. In the first half of 2021, the performance is brilliant, the revenue increases by 50% year-on-year, the extension of value-added services is launched, and the end service advantage is further deepened.
Investment advice
It is estimated that the company’s EPS from 2021 to 2023 will be 0.88 yuan, 1.55 yuan and 2.25 yuan respectively. We believe that the company’s operation chassis is solid, the merger and acquisition of Kerry Logistics is expected to vigorously develop international business, the operation of Ezhou airport will expand the coverage of time-effective products and reduce costs, and the profitability will be further strengthened. Give the company 40 times PE valuation, corresponding to the target price of 62 yuan in 2022, and give a “buy” rating for the first time.
Risk tips
Macroeconomic fluctuation risk; Risk of sharp rise in labor costs; The increase of capacity utilization is less than the expected risk; New business development is less than expected risk; Risk of shareholder reduction.
