\u3000\u3 Bohai Water Industry Co.Ltd(000605) 006 Shandong Fiberglass Group Co.Ltd(605006) )
The company issued 21fy annual report, with annual revenue of 2.75 billion, yoy + 38%; Net profit attributable to parent company: 550 million, yoy + 217%; Deduct 530 million net profit not attributable to parent company, yoy + 228%. The corresponding 21q4 company income is 690 million, yoy + 10%, QoQ + 13%; Net profit attributable to parent company: 100 million, yoy + 20%, qoq-20%; Deduct the net profit not attributable to the parent company of RMB 90 million, yoy + 10%, qoq-27%. 21q4 net profit attributable to parent and net profit deducted from non attributable to parent are slightly lower than the median of the previous performance forecast range, which is generally in line with expectations.
Recently, it also disclosed the 22q1 performance forecast. The 22q1 revenue is expected to be 790870 million, with a median value of 830 million, yoy + 13%, QoQ + 21%; The net profit attributable to the parent company is 180200 million, with a median value of 190 million, yoy + 22%, QoQ + 94%; Net profit deducted from non parent company is 180190 million, with a median value of 180 million, yoy + 25%, QoQ + 113%. Better than expected.
22q1 performance has improved significantly, or shows significant improvement in thermal power benefits and positive results in cost reduction
The sales volume of glass fiber increased steadily, the unit cost rise of 21h2 glass fiber products and the loss stage of thermoelectricity dragged down the benefits, and the 22fy pressure or marginal relief. The glass fiber sales volume of 21fy company is 393000 tons, yoy + 4.4%, which basically reflects the incremental effective capacity contribution of Zibo Zhuoyi special fiber line (20 / 10 put into operation, 80000 tons) and the impact of cold repair and technical transformation of 21h1 Yishui line 3 (cold repair at the end of 21h1, 60000 tons of technical transformation upgraded to 100000 tons, ignited, and it is expected 22q1 to be basically in full production). The 22-year effective capacity increment is expected to be mainly due to the contribution of Yishui line 3. 21fy company
Glass fiber products ASP 6021 yuan, yoy + 35% (according to Zhuo Chuang information, the average price per ton of roving in 21fy industry is 6024 yuan, yoy + 37%); The unit cost of 21fy glass fiber products of the company is 3545 yuan, yoy + 11%. It is expected that the unit cost of 21h2 will increase a lot. As discussed in our previous report, the rising cost of 21h1, especially 21q4 raw fuel, may have a great impact, which is also an important reason for the pressure of 21q4 deduction of non net profit. In addition, the 21h2 benefit of thermal power business is under great pressure. Due to the sharp fluctuation of coal price, Yishui thermal power, a subsidiary of 21fy, has a net loss of – 13.63 million yuan (vs 21h1 is a net profit of 24.29 million yuan). It is expected that the 22fy benefit may be improved.
22q1 performance has improved significantly on the same month on month basis, and the thermal power efficiency has improved significantly on the same month on month basis, or it also reflects the positive effect of cost reduction. 22q1 net profit attributable to the parent company and net profit deducted from non attributable to the parent company increased month on month, indicating that the efficiency of thermal power business may have improved significantly; The increase of over 20% in both parent ownership and deduction of 22q1 is due to the year-on-year or small increase in effective production capacity (due to the contribution of the production of Yishui line 3) and the increase in average price (according to Zhuo Chuang information, the average price of 22q1 as of 03 / 25 increased by about 4% compared with 21q1), and the year-on-year decrease or certain contribution of unit cost, which shows the effect of technological transformation and management refinement.
Continue to be optimistic about the weakening of industry cycle and the growth flexibility of the company, and maintain the “buy” rating
As discussed in our previous report, the glass fiber industry may have a high boom or good sustainability, and the market cognition is still relatively poor. At the same time, we should pay attention to the growth elasticity of the company better than the leader (steady expansion of production capacity and better space for cost tapping). 22q1’s performance was better than our previous expectations. We slightly raised the forecast of 22 / 23 net profit attributable to the parent company to 750 / 870 million (the previous value was 750 / 840 million), increased the forecast of 24-year net profit attributable to the parent company to 990 million, and + 38% / 15% / 14% from 22 to 24 years yoy respectively, maintained the company’s 15x 22-year target PE, slightly raised the target price to 22.58 yuan, and maintained the “buy” rating.
Risk tips: the demand is lower than expected, the industry supply increment is higher than expected, the rhythm of the company’s new production capacity is lower than expected, and the cost optimization execution is lower than expected; The forecast data is the preliminary calculation results, and the specific data shall be subject to the first quarterly report of 22 years
