\u3000\u3 Guocheng Mining Co.Ltd(000688) 185 Cansino Biologics Inc(688185) )
Event:
On March 27, 2021, the company released the annual report results: in 2021, the company realized an operating revenue of about 4.300 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1717482%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.914 billion yuan, and the net profit deducted from non attributable to the parent company was 1.797 billion yuan, which turned losses into profits, with a gross profit margin of 69.85%. The company invested 905 million yuan in R & D, a year-on-year increase of 110.96%.
Comments:
Covid-19 vaccine drives the company to turn losses into profits, and the focus in the future is to strengthen the needle market
In 2021, the company’s operating revenue was about 4.300 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1717482%, mainly from the revenue of covid-19 vaccine, including 1.243 billion yuan in China and 3.057 billion yuan overseas. Covid-19 adenovirus vector vaccine of the company was approved for conditional listing in China on February 25, 2021. At present, it has been urgently used and conditionally listed in Mexico, Pakistan, Hungary, Chile, Ecuador, Argentina, Malaysia, Kyrgyzstan and Indonesia. In addition, the company’s covid-19 vaccine has been approved for sequential booster immunization on February 19, 2022, and has also been approved for sequential booster immunization in Argentina, Malaysia and Indonesia. With the third booster injection being promoted globally, the company’s covid-19 vaccine demand still exists. Furthermore, the company’s inhaled covid-19 vaccine can achieve mucosal immunity or supplement the existing covid-19 vaccine. At present, phase 2 of the clinical trial has been completed and is being declared for emergency use.
There are abundant pipelines under research, and the approved listing of meningococcal vaccine will contribute to the increase of income
At present, the company’s products pipeline includes 17 innovative vaccine products for the prevention of Ebola virus disease, meningitis, COVID-19 pneumonia, pneumonia, DPT, tuberculosis and herpes zoster. Among them, the 13 valent pneumonia vaccine is in the 3 phase of clinical trial. 8 of the 12 vaccines are in the clinical trial stage or the clinical trial application stage, and 5 vaccines are in the pre clinical research stage. The company’s own products were gradually put on the market and contributed to the revenue. In June and December 2021, the company’s group A and group C meningococcal polysaccharide conjugate vaccine and acyw135 meningococcal polysaccharide conjugate vaccine were approved to be put on the market in China. Mcv2 has been invited to bid in nearly 20 provinces in China. Tetravalent meningococcal vaccine is the first one in China to fill the gap. Pfizer will be responsible for promoting and selling in the future.
Layout the mRNA technology platform and be optimistic about the development of the company in the medium and long term
The company has laid out the mRNA technology platform on the basis of the original four technology platforms. At present, the company has applied for a number of patents on mRNA vaccine design and new delivery system design, one of which has been authorized. The company has developed relevant vaccine products based on mRNA platform technology. With covid-19 vaccine and meningococcal vaccine approved for marketing and commercialized, the company’s ability to develop core vaccine varieties has been gradually verified – 1) in terms of industrialized production, the company has mastered the process of vaccine amplification and mass production, and has built a Tianjin factory with an annual design capacity of 200 million doses of covid-19 vaccine, with an annual capacity of 70-80 million doses of conventional vaccine stock solution. 2) In terms of commercial sales, the company has improved its commercialization ability from multiple angles. Through its own team, it has covered more than 30 provinces and cities, and cooperated with external enterprises to promote. 3) International strategic layout, the vaccines developed by the company are benchmarked to international mainstream varieties, the application and clinical trials take into account the Chinese and overseas markets, and carry out strategic cooperation such as technology research and development with overseas companies.
Profit forecast: Cansino Biologics Inc(688185) as the pioneer of innovative vaccine, due to the decline in the price of covid-19 vaccine and the great uncertainty of covid-19 vaccination procedure in the future, including the fourth injection and the approval time node of covid-19 vaccine in inhaled dosage form, and regardless of the income of inhaled covid-19 vaccine, the revenue of the company in 20222023 will be reduced from 9.103 billion yuan and 5.032 billion yuan to 3.076 billion yuan and 3.190 billion yuan respectively, It is estimated that the revenue in 2024 will be 3.319 billion yuan, and the net profit of the company from 2022 to 2024 will be 980 million yuan, 1.040 billion yuan and 1.119 billion yuan respectively, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk tip: the sales of covid-19 adenovirus vector vaccine is less than expected, the approval of products under development is less than expected, the production capacity release is less than expected, and the R & D is less than expected.
