\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 202 Xinjiang Goldwind Science And Technology Co.Ltd(002202) )
Conclusions and suggestions:
In 2021, the company achieved a revenue of 50.57 billion yuan, yoy-10%, and recorded a net profit of 3.46 billion yuan, yoy + 16.7% (after deducting non net profit of 2.99 billion yuan, yoy + 8.3%), equivalent to EPS of 0.79 yuan. The company’s performance was lower than the market expectation.
The company is a leading enterprise in the fan industry, with the first market share in China. Under the background of carbon neutralization and acceleration, the company’s fan sales increased steadily, and improved efficiency through platform modular development to maintain the gross profit margin of the fan sector. At the same time, the company actively expands wind farm development and wind power service business, and is expected to achieve rapid growth this year. We predict that the net profit of the company in 2022 and 2023 will reach 3.68 billion yuan and 4.41 billion yuan, yoy + 6.5% and + 19.7%, EPS is 0.87 yuan and 1.04 yuan respectively, and the corresponding PE of A-Shares is 14.9 times and 12.4 times according to the current price; The corresponding PE of H shares is 11.4 times and 9.5 times. It is recommended to “buy”.
The company’s annual performance grew steadily and the gross profit margin rebounded: the company achieved a revenue of 50.57 billion yuan in 2021, yoy-10%, and recorded a net profit of 3.46 billion yuan, yoy + 16.7% (after deducting non net profit of 2.99 billion yuan, yoy + 8.3%), equivalent to EPS of 0.79 yuan. The company’s performance was lower than the market expectation. Quarter by quarter, the company’s Q4 achieved an operating revenue of 17 billion yuan, yoy-11.5%; Net profit of 440 million yuan, yoy-50.3% (net profit of 140 million yuan after deduction, yoy-84.5%), equivalent to EPS of 0.1 yuan.
The decline of the company’s operating revenue is mainly due to the fact that 2021 is the first year of onshore wind power parity in China. Affected by the rush of installation in the previous year, the new grid connected installed capacity of wind power in the whole year was 47.6gw, a year-on-year decrease of 33.6%. Affected by this, the company’s fan sales revenue fell by 9.2% year-on-year. The company’s net profit increased year-on-year, mainly due to the increase in the proportion of large MW fan sales, driving the company’s gross profit margin to increase by 4.8 percentage points year-on-year to 22.6%. In addition, the company’s investment income reached 1.983 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18%.
The expense rate of the company is stable, and the provision for large asset impairment: in terms of expenses, the three expense rates of the company are 11.8%, with a slight increase of 0.5pct year-on-year. Among them, the sales expense rate decreased by 0.21pct year-on-year, and the management expense rate and financial expense rate increased by 0.23pct and 0.49pct year-on-year respectively. The company’s provision for asset impairment and credit impairment losses totaled 1.76 billion yuan, an increase of 1.18 billion yuan year-on-year. The provision was relatively sufficient, of which the impairment of accounts receivable was 550 million yuan, mainly due to the deterioration of the financial situation of some customers; In addition, the company’s provision for inventory, development expenditure and impairment of intangible assets were 120 million yuan, 320 million yuan and 290 million yuan respectively.
The company has sufficient orders on hand, and MSPM models have become the growth point: by the end of 2021, the company’s external orders for fans on hand were 16.9gw, of which the order capacity of 3 / 4S platform units was 8.8gw, accounting for 61%, with a year-on-year increase of 23pct; Medium speed permanent magnet (MSPM) unit is a brand-new product, with an order capacity of 4.8gw, accounting for 29%. It will be the main growth point in the future under the trend of large-scale fan; 2S unit is 3.2gw, accounting for 22%, and the proportion of follow-up orders of small fans is expected to gradually decline. The company expects the sales volume of wind turbines to be about 14gw in 2022, an increase of 18% over the same period last year. With the acceleration of carbon neutralization process, we believe that the installed capacity is expected to exceed the expectation.
Profit expectation: we predict that the net profit of the company in 2022 and 2023 will reach 3.68 billion yuan and 4.41 billion yuan, yoy + 6.5% and + 19.7%, EPS is 0.87 yuan and 1.04 yuan respectively, and the corresponding PE of A-Shares is 14.9 times and 12.4 times according to the current price; The corresponding PE of H shares is 11.4 times and 9.5 times. It is recommended to “buy”.
