\u3000\u30 Guangdong Tengen Industrial Group Co.Ltd(003003) 73 Yangzhou Yangjie Electronic Technology Co.Ltd(300373) )
Event overview
According to the company's performance express in 2021, in Q4 of 2021, the company realized an operating revenue of 1.156 billion yuan and a net profit attributable to the shareholders of the parent company of 193 million yuan. The company released the performance forecast of Q1 in 2022. It is expected that the operating revenue of Q1 in 2022 will increase by more than 45% year-on-year, and the net profit attributable to the shareholders of the listed company will be 233 million yuan ~ 280 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 50% ~ 80%, and the ring will also increase compared with the single quarter of Q4 last year.
Optimize the product structure and gradually increase the proportion of IGBT / MOS / small signal
In 2022, Q1 power semiconductor industry has a high prospect and downstream demand continues. The company actively promotes new product development, expands downstream application fields and speeds up the release of new production capacity. Among them, the sales revenue of new products such as IGBT / SiC / MOSFET increased by more than 100% year-on-year. We predict that with the breakthrough of the company's new products in new fields, the proportion of the company's diode rectifier bridge sales revenue is expected to gradually decrease and the product structure is continuously optimized. At the same time, under the promotion of "Yangjie" and "MCC", the company further strengthened its cooperation with large multinational corporations, increased the proportion of MCC brand sales revenue, and gave full play to the advantages of the company in manufacturing and sales. According to our industrial chain research, the prosperity of power semiconductors can last until at least the second quarter. Under the catalysis of strong demand for new energy vehicles and photovoltaic energy storage downstream, IGBT products may continue to maintain a high prosperity. Domestic power semiconductors are replaced by a full range of products, penetrating from the low-end field to the high-end field.
Import substitution is accelerated, and the demand is sufficient relying on the largest end consumer market
The company continues to explore the market, continue to maintain and improve its advantages in consumer electronics and civil markets, and actively expand or enter high-end markets such as new energy vehicles, charging stations (piles), automotive electronics, security, mobile portable terminals, military industry and power electronics; In the field of traditional household appliances, the company makes every effort to promote the import substitution strategy, gradually and accelerate the penetration, and expand the share of domestic devices; In emerging markets, with 5g entering the commercial stage, the upgrading of mobile phones is accelerated, the density of communication equipment and devices is higher, the fields of smart home, Internet of things and artificial intelligence are booming, and the demand for corresponding electronic components is doubled. Relying on the catalysis of China's end consumer demand, including the accelerated import substitution of new energy vehicles, consumer electronics (household appliances), industry and other fields, relevant power semiconductor device manufacturers are expected to fully benefit.
Investment advice
Based on the continuous improvement of the industry prosperity, the continuous optimization of the company's product structure and the rapid expansion of downstream application fields, we adjusted the previous profit forecast. It is estimated that the company's revenue from 2022 to 2023 will be 5.8 billion yuan and 7.3 billion yuan respectively (the previous forecast data were 5.5 billion yuan and 6.9 billion yuan respectively); It is estimated that from 2022 to 2023, the company's net profit attributable to the shareholders of the parent company will be 1.023 billion yuan and 1.245 billion yuan respectively (the previous forecast data of net profit attributable to the parent company were 1.008 billion yuan and 1.236 billion yuan respectively). The EPS will be 2.00 yuan / share and 2.43 yuan / share respectively, and the PE corresponding to the closing price of 68.83 yuan on March 29, 2022 will be 34.48 times and 28.32 times respectively. As a leading power semiconductor enterprise in China, the company's fundamentals continue to improve and its product structure continues to be optimized, it is optimistic that the company's long-term import substitution and high-end products continue to break through and maintain the buy rating.
Risk tips
The development of semiconductor industry is lower than expected; The company's technological innovation is lower than expected, resulting in the breakthrough of new products lower than expected; Downstream application expansion and customer expansion are lower than expected.
