\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 241 Goertek Inc(002241) )
The operating indicators of the annual report were sustained and healthy: the company’s revenue in 21 years was 78.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 35%, belonging to the parent of 4.27 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 50% (located in the middle and lower of the 49-59% range in the previous notice), deducting non-3.83 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 39%, in line with expectations. Highlights and reasons for performance: 1) the revenue of intelligent hardware was 32.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 86% (including Q4 revenue of 10.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 41%), the demand for VR remained high, the shipment and profitability continued to be high, and new hardware 21h2 such as game consoles and wearables continued to contribute to the revenue increment; 2) The revenue of intelligent acoustic machine was 30.3 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 14% (including 11.1 billion yuan of Q4 revenue, with a month on month increase of 65% driven by new products from key customers). With the new cycle of key customers, it has shown a bottom reversal trend; 3) 21. The gross profit margin and net profit margin of the whole year were 14.1% / 5.5% (16.0% / 4.9% in 20 years respectively). The overall gross profit margin decreased due to the further increase of the proportion of the whole machine business. However, the profitability of new products such as VR continued to strengthen. At the same time, it has long been committed to the stable improvement of net profit margin caused by the improvement of management and control and resource optimization, and maintained healthy operation (operating cash flow, various turnover and other indicators remained healthy).
Strong non deduction guidelines for 22q1: the company predicted that the performance of 22q1 decreased slightly by 0-10% on a year-on-year basis, and the corresponding net profit attributable to the parent company was 870970 million yuan, with a non deduction of 840900 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 40-50%, exceeding the average market expectation (the slight decrease in the performance attributable to the parent company was due to the non economic investment income of about 400 million yuan in the same period last year). VR orders maintained a high boom (significant year-on-year growth in shipments), the accelerated volume of intelligent hardware such as game consoles / wearables, and the delivery cycle of new TWS headphones brought revenue and profit elasticity. Combined with the continuous improvement of profitability brought by management and control optimization, the operating performance maintained a high growth. At the same time, it confirmed that the future growth logic is still expected to continue to be fulfilled.
The future outlook of various products continues to be positive: 1) VR: the shipment of North American customers is expected to maintain high growth this year. At the same time, Japanese and Chinese brands bring incremental flexibility. Based on the improvement of VR ecology, the expansion of application scenarios and the entry of more technology giants outside China, the shipment of VR / AR hardware is expected to continue to maintain rapid growth in the next few years; 2) Other product lines are flourishing: TWS headphones represented by North American customers (expected to grow steadily), game consoles represented by Japanese customers (significantly higher share than last year) and smart wearable represented by Chinese customers will make significant incremental contributions to revenue and profit this year.
We predict that the company’s EPS in 22-24 years will be 1.75 yuan, 2.29 yuan and 2.81 yuan respectively (the original forecast is 1.78 yuan and 2.21 yuan respectively in 22-23 years, based on the continuous high outlook of VR and the future forecast of slightly improving the company’s profitability). According to the 27 times PE valuation of the comparable company in 22 years, we give the company a target price of 47.25 yuan and maintain the buy rating.
Risk tips
VR / AR development fails to meet expectations; TWS earphone sales did not meet expectations; Risk of global epidemic deterioration.
