China Merchants Securities Co.Ltd(600999) comments on the annual report of China Merchants Securities Co.Ltd(600999) 2021: the performance of self operated and basic management business is beautiful, roe is steadily improved and remains at the forefront of the industry

\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 999 China Merchants Securities Co.Ltd(600999) )

Net profit increased by more than 20% at the same time, and roe was higher than the industry average 3PCT. 1) In 2021, the company achieved an operating revenue of 29.429 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 21%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 11.645 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 23%. 2) The company will achieve roe 10 in 202167%, year-on-year + 0.7pct, nearly 3PCT higher than the industry average. By the end of the year, the equity multiplier had reached 4.42, an increase of 0.51 over the beginning of the year. 3) The contribution of net income from self operation, brokerage, investment banking, interest, direct investment and asset management (excluding other businesses) was 39%, 33%, 10%, 7%, 7% and 4% respectively, of which the proportion of self operation increased by 4pct and the proportion of net interest income decreased by 6pct.

The market share of brokerage and financing increased, and the IPO business promoted the income of investment banks to increase by 18%. 1) In 21 years, the market share of stock based turnover increased from 4.14% to 4.75%, and the commission rate decreased from 3.2 per 10000 to 2.5. At the same time, benefiting from the same increase of 25% of the estimated daily turnover of the market and 37% of the consignment income, the company realized a brokerage income of 7.916 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 18%. 2) At the end of the 21st century, the balance of the company’s two financial services increased from + 16% to 96.5 billion yuan compared with the beginning of the year, and the market share increased from 5.13% to 5.27%; Affected by the 36% year-on-year increase in interest expenditure, the net interest income was only 1.693 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of – 35%. 3) In 21 years, the company achieved investment banking revenue of 2.542 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 18%. According to wind data, the underwriting scale of corporate stocks and bonds in 21 years was 522.6 billion yuan, an increase of 14% at the same time, accounting for 4.06% of the market, with a year-on-year increase of -0.25pct; The IPO underwriting scale reached 22 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 54%, and the market share increased from 3.04% in 20 years to 3.64%.

The expansion of financial investment assets exceeded 35%, and the self operation performance was beautiful, with “ice and fire” in asset management and basic management. 1) By the end of the 21st year, the scale of financial investment assets had increased by 36% over the beginning of the year to 308.5 billion yuan; Among them, bonds and fund assets increased by 22% / 53% respectively over the beginning of the year to 1967 / 23.8 billion yuan. Benefiting from the expansion of public fund allocation and market neutrality strategy, the self operated performance has both stability and growth. In 21 years, the self operated income reached 9.455 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 39%. 2) At the end of the 21st century, the company’s asset management scale decreased by 11% compared with the beginning of the year to 483.2 billion yuan. In 21 years, the company’s asset management revenue fell 9% year-on-year to 1.039 billion yuan. 3) In contrast, the net profit of Boshi and China Merchants Fund increased by 43% and 77% to RMB 1.779 billion and RMB 1.603 billion respectively, helping the company achieve a direct investment income of RMB 1.600 billion, a year-on-year increase of + 53%. Obviously, the company’s public funds have become the “main force” of the large asset management line.

According to the fine-tuning of brokerage market share in the annual report, the predicted value of BVPs in 22-23 years was adjusted from 12.32/13.51 to 12.41/13.46 yuan, and the predicted value in 24 years was increased by 14.59 yuan. According to the comparable company valuation method, the valuation year was switched to 2022, the company was given 1.40xpb in 2022, the target price was adjusted to 17.37 yuan, and the overweight rating was maintained. Risk statement

The impact of the policy on the industry exceeded expectations; The dual impact of market fluctuations on industry performance and valuation.

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