\u3000\u30 Shenzhen Quanxinhao Co.Ltd(000007) 86 Beijing New Building Materials Public Limited Company(000786) )
From the leader of gypsum board to the giant of comprehensive new building materials
The predecessor of the company, Beijing new building materials experimental factory, was established in 1979. Its main products are gypsum board and light steel keel. After more than 40 years of development, the company has become a comprehensive new building materials industry group integrating brand, R & D, production, sales and service. The company’s gypsum board production capacity has ranked first in the world, and the company’s “dragon” and “Taishan” gypsum boards have high market popularity. Since 2020, the company has embarked on a new 40 year journey with the strategic goal of “one body, two wings and global layout”. While taking gypsum board business as the company’s core business, the company has arranged supporting system businesses such as light steel keel, powder mortar, mineral wool board, thermal insulation material and fiber cement board; In addition, the company cultivated two main lines of strategic main business waterproof materials and coatings, and started new performance growth points.
2021 cash flow performance is bright, and the gross profit margin is under pressure in the short term
In 2021, the company achieved a total operating revenue of 21.086 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 25.15%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 3.510 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22.67%; The gross profit margin of the company was 31.83%, down 1.85pct year-on-year; The net profit margin of sales was 16.85%, a year-on-year decrease of 1.15pct. In terms of gross profit margin of each business, the company’s gypsum board business has highlighted its pricing strength due to the continuous improvement of market share, and the gross profit margin has increased by 1.36pct to 37.26% year-on-year; The main raw material of the company’s keel business is hot-dip galvanized steel strip. In 2021, the steel price increased and fluctuated greatly, and the gross profit margin of the company’s keel business fell 6.25pct to 18.43%. The company’s waterproof business was greatly dragged down by the price rise of main raw materials such as asphalt and polyether, and the gross profit margin decreased by 10.34pct to 23.63%. In response to the rising pressure of raw materials, the company raised the price of waterproof products in March 2022. It is expected that with the smooth implementation of the price adjustment, the gross profit margin of waterproof business will be repaired.
The main business of gypsum board seizes the commanding height and highlights the advantages of pricing power and scale
By the end of 2021, the total production capacity of gypsum board put into production, expansion and contract signing of the company was 3.838 billion square meters, and the total effective production capacity put on the market was 3.358 billion square meters, accounting for 68.53% of the total production capacity of gypsum board in China. The keel matching rate of the company continued to improve, and the production capacity of light steel keel increased to 488000 tons, ranking first in the world. In 2021, the company’s gypsum board sales volume was 2.378 billion square meters, with a year-on-year increase of 18.01%; Based on the proportion of sales volume in the whole country, the market share of the company in 2021 was 67.75%, an increase of 7.60pct year-on-year, and the market share reached a new level.
In 2021, the average sales unit price of the company’s gypsum board was 5.79 yuan / m2, with a year-on-year increase of 0.36 yuan / m2. The cost of gypsum board was 2.57 yuan / m2, with a year-on-year increase of 0.12 yuan / m2. The price increase was higher than the cost increase, which increased the gross profit per square meter of gypsum board by 0.21 yuan to 2.16 yuan. In the period of bleak industry demand in 2021, the company’s gypsum board price still kept rising smoothly and the gross profit per square meter increased, reflecting that the company has strong pricing power in the industry.
Investment advice
The company is a world gypsum board giant, building high barriers with high market share in the main industry of gypsum board and seizing the commanding height with strong pricing ability. At the same time, the company’s “two wings” waterproof material and coating business are in a large market of 100 billion level. The growth boundary of the company is widened, and the second growth curve is clear. In the pressure period of bleak industry demand and high raw material costs in 2021, the company’s performance shows its leading nature and explains high-quality growth.
Combined with the company’s branch business profit forecast and the valuation of comparable companies, we expect the company’s net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 to be 4.105/48.59/5.534 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 16.95% / 18.35% / 13.90% respectively, and the basic earnings per share to be 2.43/2.88/3.28 yuan / share, corresponding to PE of 11.63x/9.32x/8.18x respectively. Based on the firm leading position in the main business of gypsum board, the growth path of new business of waterproof and coating is clear, and the report quality is significantly improved. For the first time, give a “buy” rating.
Risk tips
The growth rate of infrastructure and real estate investment has decreased significantly, which is at risk; The price of raw materials continued to rise, exceeding expectations; The development of waterproof / coating business is less than expected.
