\u3000\u30 Shenzhen Quanxinhao Co.Ltd(000007) 68 Avic Xi'An Aircraft Industry Group Company Ltd(000768) )
Event: the company recently released the 2021 annual report and the announcement on the adjustment of related deposit limit. The annual revenue was 32.7 billion yuan, yoy-2.3%; Net profit attributable to parent company: 650 million yuan, yoy-16.0%; Deduct non net profit of 570 million yuan, yoy + 52.9%. In 2021, the company's revenue completed 101.3% of the annual plan; The industrial added value was 7.9 billion yuan, and 109.4% of the annual plan was completed; The labor productivity is 312000 yuan / person, and 104.5% of the annual plan is completed. The annual performance was lower than the market expectation, mainly due to the significant increase in 4q21 expenses.
The decrease of 4q21 net interest rate was mainly due to the increase of expenses. In a single quarter, the company achieved revenue of 6.68 billion yuan, 8.37 billion yuan, 8.06 billion yuan and 9.59 billion yuan from 2021q1 to Q4 respectively, which was relatively balanced, yoy + 3.4%, + 19.3%, - 18.4% and - 5.3%; The net profit attributable to the parent company is 140 million yuan, 200 million yuan, 270 million yuan and 40 million yuan. 2021q1 ~ Q4 gross profit margins are 6.93%, 6.07%, 7.07% and 9.47% respectively; The net interest rates were 2.03%, 2.39%, 3.38% and 0.47% respectively. The net interest rate of 4q21 decreased significantly, mainly due to the increase of short-term borrowings caused by the uncollected receivables of the company, and the interest expenses incurred were 151 million yuan (an increase of 77 million yuan over the same period of last year); The provision for credit impairment loss was 159 million yuan (an increase of 86 million yuan over the same period of last year).
Xi'an airlines and Shaanxi Airlines successfully completed the delivery task; The profit margin has great room for improvement. From the perspective of molecular companies, 1) Xi'an Airlines: achieved revenue of 19.04 billion yuan, yoy + 18.4%; The net profit is 99 million yuan; 2) Shaanxi Airlines: achieved revenue of 13.68 billion yuan, yoy + 3.8%; The net profit is 58 million yuan. After asset integration, the parent company contributes more in the profit caliber. From 2018 to 2021, the company's net interest rates were 1.52%, 1.66%, 2.32% and 2.00% respectively Avic Shenyang Aircraft Company Limited(600760) net interest rates are 3.70%, 3.71%, 5.43% and 4.98% respectively. Compared with Shenfei, the company has more room for profit improvement.
The payment collection in 2021 is general; The balance sheet may change greatly in 2022. By the end of 2021, the company's 1) accounts receivable and bills were 18.84 billion yuan, an increase of 375.9% over the beginning of the year; 2) Contract liabilities were 6.59 billion yuan, a decrease of 32.1% over the beginning of the year; 3) The net cash flow from operating activities was - 14.96 billion yuan, yoy-647.2%, and the overall payment collection was general. The company has significantly raised the deposit limit of related party transactions, which may change greatly in 2022. The company plans to adjust the amount of financial business between the company and its subsidiaries and aviation industry finance in 2022: 1) increase "the maximum deposit limit of the company and its subsidiaries on the aviation industry finance day is expected to not exceed 14 billion yuan" to "75 billion yuan", an increase of 436%; 2) "Aviation industry finance is expected to provide loans to the company and its subsidiaries of no more than 8 billion yuan" was raised to "15 billion yuan" Avic Shenyang Aircraft Company Limited(600760) , Avic Electromechanical Systems Co.Ltd(002013) , Aecc Aviation Power Co Ltd(600893) and other main engine plants raised the deposit limit of related party transactions in 2021, and there were large contract liabilities in the subsequent financial statements. We expect that the company may have a similar performance in 2022.
Investment suggestion: the company occupies an important position in the industry and has gone through three major asset restructuring. It is the rare target for the listing of large aircraft in China's special field. We expect that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 will be 957 million yuan, 1273 million yuan and 1671 million yuan respectively, with a CAGR of 32.15%, and the profitability will continue to improve. The current share price corresponds to 86x / 65x / 49x PE from 2022 to 2024. For the first coverage, give a "recommended" rating.
Risk warning: downstream demand growth is less than expected; The production and delivery of products are not as expected.
