\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 882 Shanghai Milkground Food Tech Co.Ltd(600882) )
Event overview
The company predicted that the revenue of 2022q1 was 1.15-1.35 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 21% - 42%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 55-75 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 72-134%.
Analysis and judgment:
1. The income and net profit of Shanghai Milkground Food Tech Co.Ltd(600882) q1 basically meet our expectations.
2. The year-on-year growth rate corresponding to the center of the income range is 30% +, which is still at a rapid growth level. In the subsequent quarters, we believe that the growth rate is still expected to accelerate. At present, the national distribution of low-temperature cheese sticks is mature, and the steady growth will be mainly driven by product upgrading in the future, and the income curve tends to be flat; The normal temperature cheese stick was listed in October last year. In 2022, the main task is to quickly distribute goods and help the company further develop the sinking market. We see that the sales team, the number of dealers and the number of terminal outlets are expanding rapidly during 2021q3-q4. The online channel has also launched the special contribution "small cheese cow cheese stick" for normal temperature, which breaks through the limitations of cold chain transportation of low-temperature products, so as to make full use of e-commerce channels. With sufficient capacity preparation, It can be predicted that the sales revenue of normal temperature products will increase quarter by quarter in 2022.
3. In our previous report, we suggested to pay attention to the product innovation of Shanghai Milkground Food Tech Co.Ltd(600882) 2022. In the past, the company focused more on the resources invested in fried cheese sticks. In 2022, the company began to increase the investment in family table line products and launched cheese chips and other products to cultivate breakfast consumption habits. We observed the market acceptance through the terminal. In the past few years, through the rapid nationalization of low-temperature cheese sticks, the company has established a strong brand awareness of 2C end, reached the core origin consumer group, and more new products are expected to be cultivated smoothly.
4. The net interest rate attributable to the parent company of Q1 is 4.8% - 5.6% according to the forecast. Compared with 2021, the net interest rate attributable to the parent company was 3.4%, 4q210 8%, which is in the trend of improvement. Considering that the main factories of the company are located in the epidemic area recently, the epidemic will inevitably lead to rising costs and sales pressure. After the follow-up epidemic is stable, the profit situation is expected to be further optimized.
Investment advice
Q1 revenue is in line with our expectations. Considering the impact of the epidemic, the profit situation is still good. We maintain the revenue forecast of 6.6/8.5/10.5 billion yuan in 202224 and reduce the forecast of net profit attributable to the parent company by 5.3/8.6/1.16 billion yuan to 4.2/6.9/9.3 billion yuan, so that we can make a full prediction of the uncertain macro environment and correct the problem of insufficient prediction of minority shareholders' equity. The uncertainty of profit expectation is large, and the net profit situation is in the trend of improvement, which is more important. The EPS forecast for 202124 is adjusted from 1.02/1.66/2.24 yuan to 0.82/1.34/1.8 yuan. The closing price of 2022 / 3 / 29 is 34.46 yuan, corresponding to 42 / 26 / 19 times of P / E respectively. Maintain buy rating.
Risk tips
① the sales of new products at normal temperature is less than expected; ② Market competition intensifies risk; ③ Food safety issues.
