\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 073 Shanghai Maling Aquarius Co.Ltd(600073) )
Event: the company disclosed the annual report of 2021. In 2021, the company realized revenue / net profit attributable to parent company / deduction of net profit not attributable to parent company of RMB 23.617303/235 million, a year-on-year increase of – 1.04% / – 25.17% / – 36.95%. Among them, 21q4 achieved revenue / net profit attributable to the parent company / deduction of net profit not attributable to the parent company of RMB 6.204 / – 0.36 / – 52 million, a year-on-year increase of + 5.01% / – 290.35% / – 306.69%.
The price of red meat was high and the price of pork fell sharply, resulting in a slight decline in revenue. In 2021, the company’s revenue was – 1.04% year-on-year, mainly due to the impact of the sharp decline in pig prices on the breeding business. After excluding the pig breeding business, the company’s revenue was + 0.7% year-on-year and remained stable. In terms of business, the revenue of beef and mutton / pig breeding / pork products / canned food / comprehensive food / other businesses was RMB 128.2/11.4/42.2/155.9/15.8/2.27 billion respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 5.8% / – 26.2% / – 15.3% / + 4.4% / + 11.2% / – 3.4%. The beef and mutton business benefited from the high price of red meat throughout the year. The sales of comprehensive food were driven by the brand activities of big white rabbit and Guanshengyuan, and both achieved steady growth. The revenue of pig breeding business fell sharply due to the steep fall of pig price.
Aquaculture significantly dragged down profits and doubled after elimination. In 2021, the net profit attributable to the parent company was – 25.17% year-on-year, of which Guangming agriculture and animal husbandry lost 1.052 billion yuan, reducing the net profit attributable to the parent company by 361 million yuan. After excluding the pig breeding business, the net profit attributable to the parent company was 664 million yuan, an increase of about 101.8% year-on-year, realizing a significant increase. In terms of business, beef and mutton / pig breeding / pork products / canned food / comprehensive food / other businesses achieved a gross profit margin of 10.4% / – 56.7% / 8.6% / 25.0% / 36.3% / 7.3% respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 2.6 / – 83.7 / – 0.2 / – 4.8 / – 1.1 / + 3.2pct. Under the situation of tight international transportation capacity, the company locked in lower shipping costs in advance to promote the gross profit margin of beef and mutton business. As a result of the low input of state-owned enterprises, the production cost of pig farms in Africa has not increased significantly, resulting in a rise of about 120000 pigs. As a result, the production cost of pig farms in Africa has not increased significantly due to the low input of state-owned enterprises, which has led to a significant increase in the production cost of about 120000 pigs. Canning is mainly due to the decline in pig prices after hoarding imported pork in 2020, resulting in higher cost pressure and a decline in gross profit margin. We expect that after the digestion of high priced frozen meat, the gross profit margin of Canning is expected to rise in 2022.
The flexibility of breeding business is highlighted, and Sushi’s new production capacity is added to the prefabricated vegetable business. Looking forward to 2022, we believe that the pig price may be low before and high after, the company’s breeding income is expected to rise, the ton cost may be maintained at about 14 yuan / kg, the ton loss is expected to narrow, and the elasticity is prominent. In addition, sushi Huai’an meat products phase II new plant has been completed and put into operation, with a current production capacity of 15000 tons. It is expected to serve as a customized processing platform for the central kitchen, overweight the prefabricated vegetable business, and contribute to a new revenue growth curve. The adverse factors such as weather and overseas supply weaken. We expect the red meat price to peak in 2022, and the shipping cost is not locked in advance, so the gross profit of beef and mutton may be slightly reduced.
Investment suggestion: we expect the company’s earnings per share from 2022 to 2024 to be 0.35, 0.40 and 0.43 yuan respectively, maintain the investment rating of overweight-a, and the 12-month target price is 8.45 yuan, which is equivalent to the dynamic P / E ratio of 21x in 2023.
Risk tip: the downward trend of pork is less than expected, food safety and epidemic recovery are less than expected.
