\u3000\u3 Shengda Resources Co.Ltd(000603) 659 Shanghai Putailai New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(603659) )
In 2021, the net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.749 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 161.93%, in line with market expectations. In 2021, the company’s revenue was 8.996 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 70.36%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.749 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 161.93%; Deduct non net profit of RMB 1.66 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 166.16%; The gross profit margin in 2021 was 35.65%, with a year-on-year increase of 4.07pct; The net interest rate was 19.82%, with a year-on-year increase of 6.05pct. In 2021, Q4 company achieved a revenue of 2.701 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 39.65%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 518 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 105.22%.
The graphitization price rise was conducted smoothly, and the negative electrode integration led to steady profit growth. The company shipped 97200 tons in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 54%, of which more than 25000 tons were shipped in 2021q4, with a slight increase month on month, mainly limited by the power policy; Downstream demand is strong. With the release of new production capacity, we expect the company’s shipment to reach 160000180000 tons in 2022, with a year-on-year increase of 60% +. The integration ratio of the company is about 65-70%, and the prices of some products have been raised through the cost sharing mechanism through negotiation with downstream customers. With the gradual release of graphitization capacity and the further increase of self supply ratio, we expect that the profitability of negative pole is expected to be maintained in 2022. At the same time, in the long run, under the background of carbon neutralization, low price graphitization capacity is a scarce resource, the company has a significant first mover advantage, and the cost advantage exists for a long time.
The expansion of negative electrode production capacity accelerated, supported the continuous high growth, and actively distributed integration and cutting-edge technologies. By the end of 2021, the negative electrode capacity of the company was 150000 tons +, of which the pre process capacity of 60000 tons in Jiangxi was successfully put into operation; The company plans to build a 200000 ton / year negative electrode material integration project in Qionglai, Sichuan, of which phase I is 100000 tons. We expect that it will be put into operation in the second half of 2022, and the company’s production capacity will reach 250000 tons by the end of 2022.
The expansion of diaphragm production is accelerated, and the shipment in 2022 is expected to increase year-on-year. We expect the company to ship 2.17 billion yuan in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 200%. The main increase comes from Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , of which Q4 shipments reach about 700 million square meters, with a month on month increase of about + 20%. In terms of profitability, we expect that the annual single level profit in 2022 will remain 0.2 yuan / level +, further improving year-on-year. With the implementation of production capacity in Ningde zhuogo, Sichuan Qionglai and Guangdong Zhaoqing, we expect that the company’s shipment is expected to reach 4 billion Ping + in 2022, nearly doubling year-on-year growth.
The layout of base film + coating materials has successfully broken through key customers. By the end of 2021, the company has formed a production capacity of 100 million square meters of base membrane, 8000 tons of nano alumina and boehmite and 5000 tons of PVDF. Orders for equipment business were gradually released, and businesses such as aluminum-plastic film were profitable.
Profit forecast and investment rating: considering the acceleration of the company’s capacity expansion, we predict that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 will reach 3.007/4.429/6.32 billion yuan (originally expected to be 3.007/4.213 billion yuan), 76% / 44% / 43% year-on-year respectively; Corresponding to 29 / 20 / 14 times of the current price of PE, 45xpe for 22 years is given, and the target price is 198.9 yuan, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk tip: the sales volume is lower than expected and the profit level is lower than expected.
