\u3000\u3 Guocheng Mining Co.Ltd(000688) 005 Ningbo Ronbay New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(688005) )
In 2021, the company realized a net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 911 million, with a year-on-year increase of 328%, which is in line with market expectations. In 2021, the company realized a net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 911 million, with a year-on-year increase of 328%, which is in line with market expectations. In 2021, the company’s revenue was 10.259 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 170.36%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 911 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 327.59%; Deduct non net profit of 808 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 404.73%. In 2021, Q4’s net profit attributable to the parent company was 362 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 263.81%. In 2021, Q4’s revenue was 4.008 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 176.62% and a month on month increase of 50.72%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 362 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 263.81% and a month on month increase of 59.08%. Deducting the net profit not attributable to the parent company was 339 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 380.87% and a month on month increase of 65.74%.
Shipments increased sharply throughout the year, and the leading position of high nickel was stable. The company shipped 53000 tons of cathode materials in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 85.53%, of which 17000 tons were shipped in Q4 in 2021, with a month on month increase of 20%. We expect the company’s net profit per ton of 2021q4 cathode to rise to nearly 20000 yuan, with a ring increase of nearly 40%, mainly benefiting from the income from low-cost lithium carbonate inventory. The annual profit per ton in 2021 is expected to reach 16500 yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 173%. With the completion of inventory consumption in 2022q1, we expect the net profit per ton to recover to RMB 1 Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) 000. In 2021, the company’s total shipments of 8-series, 9-series and NCA ternary positive electrodes exceeded 50000 tons, with a year-on-year increase of 170.36%. High nickel and NCA ternary accounted for more than 90% of positive electrode shipments. In 2021, the company accounted for 35% of China’s high nickel cathode market, leading the second place in Tianjin BAMO 12pct and firmly ranking in the leading position.
The construction of positive capacity will be accelerated again, and the cooperation with strategic customers will be deepened. The positive pole capacity of the company will reach 120000 tons by the end of 2021. In addition, the capacity of Guizhou phase II and South Korea phase I is expected to be completed in 2022. We expect the positive pole capacity of the company to exceed 250000 tons by the end of 2022. The company has signed a strategic cooperation agreement with Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) and will be the first supplier of ternary cathode powder in the next three years. In addition, the output of customers such as Funeng, ski, Yiwei and honeycomb energy increased significantly in 2022, with high demand certainty. We expect the company’s shipment to reach 150000 tons in 2022, with a year-on-year increase of about 180%.
Fixed growth + cooperation to ensure long-term capacity construction. The company plans to raise no more than 6.068 billion yuan, of which 3.489 billion yuan will be used for Xiantao phase I, Zunyi phase 2-2 and Zhongzhou phase 1-2 cathode expansion projects, with a total capacity of 147000 tons. Meanwhile, a package cooperation agreement was signed with Xiantao municipal government to build a lithium battery cathode material manufacturing base with an annual capacity of 400000 tons in Xiantao, which will be completed in three phases. Phase I (annual capacity of 100000 tons) is planned to be completed by the end of June 2023, phase II (annual capacity of 100000 tons) is planned to be completed by 2025, and phase III (annual capacity of 200000 tons) is planned to be completed by 2030 to provide guarantee for long-term capacity construction.
Profit forecast and investment rating: the downstream demand is strong. The net profit attributable to the parent company of our Shangxiu company from 2022 to 2024 is RMB 2.004/30.38/4.256 billion (previously expected to be RMB 2.013/2.886 billion), an increase of 120% / 52% / 40%, corresponding to pe29 / 19 / 13X. We will give 45xpe in 2022, target price of RMB 202, and maintain the “buy” rating.
Risk tip: the policy is less than expected and the sales volume is less than expected.
