\u3000\u30 Zhongyan Technology Co.Ltd(003001) 22 Chongqing Zhifei Biological Products Co.Ltd(300122) )
Event overview:
The company released the performance forecast for the first quarter of 2022, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.783-1.970 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 90% – 110%; The net profit deducted from non parent company was RMB 1.791-1.979 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 90% – 110%.
The company’s performance in the first quarter significantly exceeded expectations, mainly contributed by non covid-19 vaccine
We expect and calculate that the company’s covid-19 vaccine contribution profit in the first quarter of 2022 is less than 100 million yuan, and the performance exceeds the expectation mainly from the contribution of the company’s non covid-19 vaccine business. According to the batch issuance data released by the Chinese people’s Procuratorate, as of March 30, 2022, 12 batches of tetravalent HPV vaccine have been issued, which is estimated to be about 2-2.5 million; There are 20 batches of nine valent HPV vaccine, which is estimated to be about 4-4.5 million. It is estimated that in 2022, about 6-7 million pieces of Q1 four price and nine price will be issued in batches, with a year-on-year increase of about 100% – 130%. Considering that the current penetration rate of HPV vaccine in China is very low, the current market is still in short supply. We expect that the revenue of HPV vaccine business of Q1 company will account for more than 80% in 2022. The high growth of batch issuance of four price and nine price HPV vaccines has laid a foundation for the high growth of HPV vaccine business of the company in the first quarter.
The self-developed pipeline is abundant and gradually realized
At present, the company has 26 independent R & D projects, including 16 in the clinical stage and 10 in the preclinical stage. Among them, acyw135 meningococcal polysaccharide conjugate vaccine and bivalent dysentery conjugate vaccine have entered clinical phase III, influenza virus split vaccine and 23 valent pneumococcal polysaccharide vaccine have completed clinical phase III trials, 15 valent pneumonia conjugate vaccine and rabies vaccine (Vero cells) are in clinical phase III, rabies vaccine (MRC-5 cells) has obtained the summary report of phase III clinical trials, and the pipeline under research of the company will gradually enter the harvest period. At the same time, the company’s micro card was approved in 2021 and launched the market access of the product and the formulation of follow-up promotion strategy at the first time. With the promotion of early market access, it is expected that the micro card will start to grow in large quantities this year.
Investment advice
Regardless of the performance elasticity of covid-19 vaccine, considering the short supply of HPV vaccine and the first full sales year of the company’s heavy product micro card this year, we maintain the profit forecast of 2021 and raise the profit forecast of the company from 2022 to 2023. From 2022 to 2023, the operating revenue increased from 29.312/37.690 billion yuan to 30.810/40.486 billion yuan, and the net profit attributable to the parent company increased from 6.789/8.936 billion yuan to 7.208/9.748 billion yuan. EPS increased from 4.24/5.59 yuan to 4.51/6.09 yuan. To sum up, from 2021 to 2023, the net profit attributable to the parent company was RMB 49.24/72.08/9.748 billion respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 49.15% / 46.39% / 35.24%, corresponding to the closing price of RMB 136.00/share on March 30, 2022, and PE was 44 / 30 / 22 times. Maintain the “buy” rating.
Risk tips
The sales of core vaccine products were lower than expected; Covid-19 vaccine export is less than expected risk; The progress of vaccine product development was lower than expected.
