\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 594 Byd Company Limited(002594) )
Byd Company Limited(002594) released the annual report of 2021: in 2021, the revenue was 216.1 billion yuan and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 3.045 billion yuan.
Byd Company Limited(002594) vehicle business profit hit a record high The two vehicle subsidiaries of Byd Company Limited(002594) include Byd Company Limited(002594) automobile industry and Byd Company Limited(002594) Automobile Co., Ltd., with a total profit of 2.55 billion yuan in 2021, which is the best profit level in history (a large proportion of the performance of the two subsidiaries in 2020 comes from epidemic prevention materials), which is mainly due to the hot sales of Byd Company Limited(002594) passenger cars: in 2021 Byd Company Limited(002594) sold 713000 passenger cars, with a year-on-year increase of 83.9%. The net profit of the two subsidiaries in 2021h2 is about 2 billion yuan. In the second half of the year, Byd Company Limited(002594) totally sold 488000 vehicles. Therefore, the average single vehicle profit is about 4100 yuan.
Bicycle profits continued to improve. On a quarterly basis, 2021q4 Byd Company Limited(002594) automobile sales volume was 287400 units, up 39.5% month on month basis. We estimate that the gross profit margin of 21q4 automobile business was about 16.5%, down 0.8pct month on month basis from 21q3, which is expected to be caused by the rise in raw material costs. However, due to the saving of overall cost rate, the overall profit of 2021q4 automobile business (including batteries and other parts) was better than that in the third quarter. After adding back some impairment, we expect it to be about 1.1 billion yuan, It can be calculated that the single vehicle net profit of 2021q4 company is about 3700 yuan, which is better than 1800 yuan in the third quarter.
The pace of production expansion was accelerated and R & D investment continued to grow. In 2021, the capital expenditure of Byd Company Limited(002594) battery (including photovoltaic) and vehicle business reached 45.9 billion yuan (including 23.9 billion batteries and 22 billion vehicles), an increase of 36.8 billion yuan over 2020. According to public information, Byd Company Limited(002594) vehicle business added bases in Changzhou, Jiangsu, Hefei, Anhui and Fuzhou, Jiangxi in 2021, and new bases in Yancheng, Jiangsu, Wuwei, Anhui and Jinan, Shandong in the battery sector. The accelerated expansion of capital expenditure can provide a capacity basis for the subsequent demand for rapid expansion. In 2021, the investment scale of Byd Company Limited(002594) R & D reached 10.63 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 24.2% and a capitalization rate of 24.8%. Among mainstream vehicle enterprises, the capitalization rate is low.
2022 has high performance, predictable growth and great long-term potential. Taking into account the sharp rise in costs, the decline in subsidies and other factors, we expect 22q1 to be the low point of the company's profit, but the second quarter is expected to usher in a profit inflection point: 1) in the first quarter, the average Byd Company Limited(002594) vehicle price rose by 6 Xiandai Investment Co.Ltd(000900) 0 yuan / set, and the effect is expected to be reflected in the second quarter; 2) The proportion of high price models, such as destroyer 05, song prodmi, song maxdmi and Han DMI, has increased, which is conducive to the significant improvement of the company's profitability. After the second quarter, under the background of scale effect and continuous improvement of product structure, Byd Company Limited(002594) single vehicle profit is expected to continue to rise. In the long run, Byd Company Limited(002594) dmi series models have few competitive products and are expected to maintain a high growth rate in the next few years; Pure electric vehicles will also show a trend of rapid growth (new models such as seals and sea lions will open a new era of Byd Company Limited(002594) pure electric vehicles). If the price of raw materials such as lithium carbonate falls, the performance elasticity of Byd Company Limited(002594) will be greater in the next few years.
Investment suggestion: maintain the "Buy-A" rating. We expect the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 to be 8.01, 13.55 and 20.9 billion yuan respectively. Corresponding to the current market value, PE is 86.1, 50.9 and 33 times respectively, maintaining the "Buy-A" rating and the six-month target price is 360 yuan / share.
Risk tip: the subsidy has declined sharply; The promotion of new products is less than expected
