\u3000\u3 Guocheng Mining Co.Ltd(000688) 187 Zhuzhou Crrc Times Electric Co.Ltd(688187) )
Key points
The performance declined slightly in 2021
Zhuzhou Crrc Times Electric Co.Ltd(688187) 2021 achieved an operating revenue of 15.12 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 5.7%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 2.02 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 18.5%. The comprehensive gross profit margin was 33.7%, a year-on-year decrease of 3.5 percentage points; The net interest rate was 13.5%, a year-on-year decrease of 2.1 percentage points; The decline in profit margin was mainly due to the rise in raw material costs and the increase in depreciation and amortization caused by the commissioning of new production capacity. The net inflow of operating cash was 2.15 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 23.1%. The company plans to pay a dividend of 0.45 yuan per share in the year, with a dividend rate of 31%.
Rail transit business is affected by the decline of the industry, but Beijing Emerging Eastern Aviation Equipment Co.Ltd(002933) business continues to grow at a high rate
In 2021, the company's rail transit equipment business revenue was 12.25 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 11.8% Beijing Emerging Eastern Aviation Equipment Co.Ltd(002933) business income was 2.57 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 35.3%; Other business income was 300 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22.7%. Under the unfavorable situation that the rail transit business was affected by the adjustment of the investment rhythm of the industry, the company actively responded and the Beijing Emerging Eastern Aviation Equipment Co.Ltd(002933) business continued to grow at a high rate. Among them, the revenue of power semiconductor devices was 1.07 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 33.3%; The revenue from electric drive of new energy vehicles was 460 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 171.4%; The income from industrial converter was 530 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 30.5%. According to the disclosure of the annual report, the company's IGBT ranks first in the field of rail transportation and power grid in China, and the number of delivered devices in the field of electric vehicles, wind power and photovoltaic has increased significantly; In 2021, the sales volume of semiconductor devices reached 1.1 million, with a significant year-on-year increase of 110.6%; In 2021, the sales volume of electric drive for passenger cars ranked among the top ten in the industry for the first time.
IGBT and other power semiconductor businesses have huge growth space
The Beijing Emerging Eastern Aviation Equipment Co.Ltd(002933) business of the company includes power semiconductor, industrial converter, electric drive of new energy vehicles, sensors and marine engineering equipment, which represents the direction with high growth potential focused by many companies. The company has built two 8-inch IGBT production lines and adopted IDM mode. IGBT chips and modules have been used in rail transit, power grid, new energy vehicles, wind power, photovoltaic and many other fields. We believe that under the background of the new IGBT line being put into operation and the capacity climbing, the company's IGBT product revenue is expected to continue to achieve rapid growth in 2022 and enter the supply chain of more leading customers. In the future, the company will continue to research and develop in IGBT, SiC and other fields, increase production capacity and occupy more import substitution markets.
Maintain "buy" rating
Considering that the rail transit business was impacted by the epidemic and other factors, and the order volume decreased, we lowered the company's net profit forecast of 22-23 years by 19.4% / 14.9% to 22.8/2.7 billion yuan, and introduced the 24-year net profit forecast of 3.17 billion yuan, corresponding to EPS of 22-24 years of 1.61/1.91/2.24 yuan respectively. We believe that the company's rail transit business is expected to hit the bottom and rebound in the future; The Shenzhen New Industries Biomedical Engineering Co.Ltd(300832) growth space of IGBT and other companies is huge, which can improve the company's valuation and deserves special attention; Maintain the "buy" rating of the company's A-Shares and Hong Kong shares.
Risk warning: fluctuation risk of rail transit investment, Shenzhen New Industries Biomedical Engineering Co.Ltd(300832) poor development risk, fluctuation risk of sub IPO share price
