\u3000\u3 Guangdong Shaoneng Group Co.Ltd(000601) 636 Zhuzhou Kibing Group Co.Ltd(601636) )
Complete R & D system and look forward to the breakthrough of emerging products: with the help of complete R & D system and the accumulated profits of float glass boom, Zhuzhou Kibing Group Co.Ltd(601636) actively invest in the R & D of emerging glass products and processes. In 2021, Qibin achieved a technological breakthrough in the field of photovoltaic float glass. The new generation of ultra white float glass leads the industry in many performance indexes and can be applied in the field of photovoltaic module panels. The first breakthrough of photovoltaic float technology is a landmark achievement of its research institute system, which makes us more confident that it is expected to reach the industry-leading level in the manufacturing process of photovoltaic calendered glass. At the same time, we are full of expectations for its breakthrough in emerging products such as electronic glass and medicinal glass.
Photovoltaic float glass has unique advantages, or can coexist with calendered glass: Zhuzhou Kibing Group Co.Ltd(601636) the test results of the new generation of ultra white float glass developed in the laboratory show that its light transmission performance parameters and power generation efficiency can match that of ultra white calendered glass. Of course, it still needs to be further verified in the natural environment in the future. Theoretically, photovoltaic float process has four advantages: 1) the yield of ultra white float glass is higher and has certain cost advantages; 2) The double-layer coating process can be used to increase the light transmittance in a specific spectral range; 3) Effectively weaken PID (potential induced attenuation) effect; 4) Float process is easier to produce large-size and light products, which is in line with the trend of panel thinning and large-size silicon wafer. In the long run, we believe that Zhuzhou Kibing Group Co.Ltd(601636) photovoltaic float glass is expected to coexist with calendered glass in the field of photovoltaic panels Zhuzhou Kibing Group Co.Ltd(601636) at present, some float production lines are used for the production of photovoltaic products, and the acceptance of downstream customers is gradually improving.
Photovoltaic float and calendering are developed simultaneously to open up growth space: the application field of photovoltaic float products is the same as that of ultra white calendered glass. Therefore, we believe that Zhuzhou Kibing Group Co.Ltd(601636) future photovoltaic float glass assets should be priced according to the photovoltaic calendered glass valuation system rather than the traditional float glass asset valuation system. Taking Flat Glass Group Co.Ltd(601865) as an example, it currently has a production capacity of 12200t / D photovoltaic calendered glass, with a planned daily melting capacity of more than 20000 tons and a market value of 99.5 billion (as of March 25, 2022). At present, the company has announced that 7 photovoltaic glass production lines will be built and proposed outside China, with a total capacity of 8400t / d. it does not rule out that there are still large-scale capacity construction plans in the future, and some of the float production lines in production have been converted to photovoltaic products. Therefore, the photovoltaic glass sector of the company has great potential to improve the valuation. In short, the company has a large development space in the field of photovoltaic glass in the future, and its growth attribute continues to strengthen.
Investment suggestion: we are optimistic that the growth rate at the completion end of real estate will pick up in 22 years, the risk of uncompleted and delayed delivery under the guidance of policies will be greatly reduced, and the demand for glass has strong toughness and elasticity. Overall, the subsequent float glass industry is still expected to return to high prosperity. We continue to firmly recommend Zhuzhou Kibing Group Co.Ltd(601636) , which is not only the catalyst of the expected rise in glass prices, but also attaches more importance to the long-term growth attribute of the enterprise, especially in the predictable photovoltaic field. With a complete R & D system, the company's efforts in the photovoltaic field in the short term are a key step in the expansion of its new products. In addition, it can also strengthen the market's confidence in the expansion of the company's business areas with high growth potential such as energy conservation, electronics and medical glass. We maintain the company's EPS of 1.58, 1.59 and 1.61 yuan in 21-23 years respectively, and maintain the "buy" rating.
Risk tip: the progress of the application of ultra white float glass in the photovoltaic field is less than expected, the recovery of float glass price is less than expected, the cost pressure of raw and fuel materials is increased, and the development of new business is less than expected.
