\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 797 First Capital Securities Co.Ltd(002797) )
The performance growth was lower than expected, and the asset management business supported future growth and maintained the “buy” rating
In 2021, the company’s total operating revenue / net profit attributable to the parent company were 3.26 billion yuan and 750 million yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 4.3% / – 8.3% and roe of 5.5% 3%, compared with -1.8pct in 2020, the performance was lower than our expectation, mainly because the investment bank income of the company decreased year-on-year and the investment income growth was lower than expected. In 2021, the company’s net income from asset management and interest was + 34% / + 64% year-on-year, with a relatively bright performance. Considering the adverse impact of equity market fluctuations on securities business in 2022, we lowered the company’s forecast of net profit attributable to parent company from 2022 to 2023 to 760 / 910 million yuan (1.12 / 1.35 billion yuan before adjustment), and increased the forecast of net profit attributable to parent company in 2024 to 1.06 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 2% / + 19% / + 18%, corresponding to EPS of 0.18/0.22/0.25 yuan from 2022 to 2024. The company has strong advantages in large asset management business, and AUM, a holding fund company, continues to grow to support future performance growth. The current share price is expected to correspond to pe31.00 in 2022 8x, maintain the “buy” rating.
Participate in the improvement of AUM holding fund company and enhance the stability of future performance growth
(1) in 2021, the company’s asset management business income was 920 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 34%, accounting for 28% of revenue, an increase of 6.2pct compared with 2020, of which the public fund business line income was 770 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 350%, which was the main driving factor. The net asset management business income of securities companies was 150 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of – 70%. In 2021, the revenue / net profit of ChuangJin Hexin (51.07% held by the company) was RMB 900 million / 150 million respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 77% / + 60%. By the end of 2021, the entrusted asset scale of ChuangJin Hexin was RMB 810.7 billion, with a year-on-year increase of + 43%, of which the special account aum741.6 billion, with a year-on-year increase of + 40%, and the public fund aum68.2 billion, with a year-on-year increase of + 81%. (2) In 2021, the company’s investment income in associates and joint ventures was 254 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 26%, mainly contributed by Yinhua Fund (26.1% held by the company). In 2021, the net profit of Yinhua Fund was 920 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 11%. At the end of 2021, the non commodity aum246.1 billion yuan of Yinhua Fund, a year-on-year increase of + 9%.
Net interest income and investment income of fixed income business increased year-on-year
(1) in 2021, the company’s brokerage business income was 460 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 14%, and the net interest income was 200 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 64%. At the end of 2021, the company’s financing scale was 7.5 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of + 30% and a market share of 0.44%, which was + 0.05pct compared with the beginning of the year. The increase of the scale and market share of the two financing businesses brought about an increase in interest income. (2) In 2021, the company’s return on investment in financial assets (including changes in fair value) was 928 million yuan, a year-on-year – 5%, and the return on proprietary investment was 5.62%, which was -0.51pct higher than that in 2020, or affected by the decline in the return on equity investment. At the end of 2021, the company’s financial assets were 17 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 6%, including 13.4 billion yuan of bonds and 550 million yuan of stocks. According to the segment report of the annual report, the company’s fixed income investment income (including changes in fair value) was 490 million yuan in 2021, a year-on-year increase of + 75%.
Risk warning: the sharp fluctuation of stock market causes the uncertainty of brokerage profit; The scale expansion of public offering was less than expected.
