\u3000\u30 Zhongyan Technology Co.Ltd(003001) 22 Chongqing Zhifei Biological Products Co.Ltd(300122) )
Summary of this issue:
Event: the company released the performance forecast for the first quarter of 2022, and it is expected to realize the net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 1.783-1.970 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 90% - 110%; The net profit deducted from non parent company was RMB 1.791-1.979 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 90% - 110%.
Comments:
High performance, higher growth than expected, rapid and large-scale production of HPV vaccine. According to the performance forecast, in the first quarter of 2022, the company achieved a net profit of RMB 1.790-1.979 billion, an increase of 90-110% year-on-year. The performance exceeded market expectations, and the large-scale contribution of HPV vaccine increased rapidly. In the first quarter of 2022, 440 million covid-19 vaccines were vaccinated nationwide, mainly inactivated vaccine booster shots. It is estimated that Chongqing Zhifei Biological Products Co.Ltd(300122) the sales volume of recombinant protein covid-19 vaccine is small and does not contribute much to the performance; Tuberculosis diagnosis and prevention products are in the early stage of access and volume, and have not yet contributed significant profits; The sales volume of the company's core agent products, four price and nine price HPV vaccines, has increased significantly, which is expected to be close to 6 million, significantly thickening the company's performance, and the annual sales volume is expected to exceed 25 million.
HPV vaccine market demand is strong and is expected to maintain rapid growth. The demand for HPV vaccine in China is large and the penetration rate is low. At present, there is still great room for growth. From 2017 to 2021, the total number of HPV vaccines issued in batches in China exceeded 60 million, and about 20 million people completed the whole process of immunization; The number of female target population aged 9-45 in China is about 380 million, and the penetration rate is only about 5%. Among them, the price of four / nine price HPV vaccine is higher, which has certain advantages in the scope of disease prevention and protection efficiency. With the increase of HPV vaccination rate, the overall market capacity of the industry will continue to expand, which is expected to drive the rapid growth of the company's performance.
The layout of R & D pipelines is rich, and the products under research are progressing smoothly. 1) The micro card pipeline of TB EC diagnostic reagent and preventive biological products is exclusive to China and is expected to enter the mass production stage in 2022; 2) Diploid crazy vaccine, tetravalent influenza vaccine and AC Hib triple vaccine will be applied for production soon; 3) 15 valent pneumonia conjugate vaccine, bivalent dysentery conjugate vaccine and other products are currently in phase III clinical stage; The company's independently developed products have entered the harvest period, which is expected to further thicken the company's performance.
Profit forecast: it is estimated that the operating revenue from 2022 to 2023 will be 34.245/42.664 billion yuan respectively, and the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 7.912/9.581 billion yuan respectively, corresponding to 28 / 23 times of PE from 2022 to 2023.
Risk factors: the risk that the issuance or sale of product approval is less than expected, the risk that the progress of product R & D is less than expected, and the risk of uncertain covid-19 epidemic situation.
