Event:
From March 25 to 27, 2022, the 8th China electric vehicle hundred people’s conference forum was officially held online. The theme of this forum is “meeting the new stage of market-oriented development of new energy vehicles”. Government departments, industry experts, research institutions and enterprise executives are invited to attend the forum to focus on industry hotspots and discuss development trends.
Comments:
The development of new energy vehicle industry has entered a new stage
Electric vehicles will ensure that the carbon peak of vehicles will be achieved by 2030. Academician Ouyang Minggao of Tsinghua University said that the overall trend of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) automobile market in the middle of 20212023 is rapid growth, but cyclical fluctuations are inevitable. It is expected that the sales volume of fuel vehicles will reach the peak in 20222023 and the penetration rate of new energy vehicles will reach 50% in 2030.
Electrification drives the demand for batteries to exceed expectations, which brings the challenge of rising the price of raw materials in the short term
According to the statistics of the school of vehicle and transportation of Tsinghua University, the battery shipment in 2021 is 261gwh, with a year-on-year increase of 119.3%. It is expected that the battery demand will reach 1.2twh in 2025. On the one hand, the increase in the price of battery raw materials this year is due to the increase in the demand for complete vehicles, which leads battery enterprises to expand production and increase reserves; On the other hand, it is due to the superposition of supply delay and epidemic impact on production and transportation. With the improvement of lithium carbonate supply capacity, it will gradually return to the balance of supply and demand.
In 2025, the power battery capacity may be periodically surplus
Academician Ouyang Minggao predicted based on the statistics of industrial investment information: China’s battery capacity may reach 1500gwh in 2023 and 3000gwh in 2025; However, it is estimated that the battery shipment in 2025 will be only 1200gwh, and the capacity will be surplus.
The continuous iterative and progressive battery technology will bring new opportunities to battery enterprises
Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) Chairman Liu Jincheng said that the large cylindrical battery will become the main direction of high and middle end products in the future, and the iron lithium battery will continue to provide cheap and high-quality battery solutions for popular models because of its excellent safety performance and economy Wu Kai, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) chief scientist, said that Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) third generation CTP technology, internally known as “Kirin battery”, can increase its power by 13% compared with 4680 system under the same chemical system and the same battery pack size.
Investment advice
We believe that the rapid iterative development of battery technology will bring new opportunities to battery enterprises. We suggest paying attention to companies with advanced independent battery technology, such as Byd Company Limited(002594) , Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) , etc.
Risk tips
1) risk that the sales volume of new energy vehicles is lower than expected; 2) Risks of changes in industrial policies and subsidies; 3) The risk of intensified industry competition; 4) Upstream raw material price rise risk.
