Industry core view:
Last week, the Shenwan retail trade index fell 1.57%, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 0.38 percentage points. According to the social zero data released by the Bureau of statistics, the social zero from January to February was + 6.7% compared with the same period in 2021. After deducting price factors, it was + 4.90% compared with the same period in 2021. We believe that in the short term, the epidemic will counterattack and the consumer market will face uncertainty. However, with the more accurate and effective epidemic prevention and control and the gradual implementation of the “steady growth” economic policy, China’s consumption is expected to return to a stable growth trend in the future. Suggestions and concerns: ① gold jewelry: the recent intensification of geopolitical friction promotes the continuous rise of gold price and stimulates the consumption of gold jewelry. In the medium and long term, the increasing penetration of daily consumption, gift giving, investment and other scenarios under the concept of “pleasing oneself” has driven the steady expansion of the industry scale. In addition, the epidemic has accelerated the industry integration in the past two years. Jewelry leading enterprises have actively seized the market by seizing channels, upgrading brands and developing new products, and are optimistic about gold jewelry leading enterprises; ② Mother and baby: since the implementation of the three child policy, governments across the country have issued a number of birth incentive measures. It is expected that the birth rate is expected to boost in the future with the implementation of more relevant supporting measures and policies. It is suggested to pay attention to the investment opportunities of mother and baby racing track in advance; ③ Cosmetics & Medical Beauty: under the beauty economy, there is a strong demand for cosmetics and medical beauty. Recently, a number of relevant regulations on cosmetics and medical beauty have been issued, and the industry is facing a reshuffle, which will benefit the leading companies of compliant cosmetics and medical beauty.
Key investment points:
Market review: last week (March 21-march 27), the Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.19%, the Shenwan retail trade index fell 1.57%, and the retail trade index lost 0.38 percentage points to the Shanghai Composite Index, ranking 21st in the rise and fall of Shenwan 31 primary industry indexes. Since the beginning of the year, the Shanghai Composite Index has fallen by 11.75%, the commercial retail index has fallen by 15.23%, and the Shenwan commercial retail index has lost the Shanghai Composite Index by 3.48 percentage points, ranking 17th among the 31 primary sub industries of Shenwan.
Industry data: ① social zero data: from January to February 2022, China’s total retail sales of social consumer goods increased by 6.70% compared with the same period in 2021. After deducting price factors, it actually increased by 4.90% compared with the same period in 2021. Among the sub categories, the retail sales of gold, silver, jewelry and cosmetics increased by + 19.50% and + 7.00% respectively year-on-year. ② Raw material price data: last week, gold rose $36.91 to $195781 per ounce, and silver rose $0.55 to $25.50 per ounce.
Important announcements of listed companies: Yunnan Botanee Bio-Technology Group Co.Ltd(300957) sales restrictions lifted Shanghai Yuyuan Tourist Mart (Group) Co.Ltd(600655) and Chongqing Baiya Sanitary Products Co.Ltd(003006) issue profit distribution plan China National Gold Group Gold Jewellery Co.Ltd(600916) , Jinfa Labi Maternity & Baby Articles Co.Ltd(002762) and C&S Paper Co.Ltd(002511) reduction Yunnan Botanee Bio-Technology Group Co.Ltd(300957) , Proya Cosmetics Co.Ltd(603605) , Zhou Shengsheng, HengAn international and Chongqing Baiya Sanitary Products Co.Ltd(003006) issued performance reports.
Important events in the industry: ① the State Food and Drug Administration issued a series of policies in the field of medical devices; ② The State Food and Drug Administration announced the qualified rate of sampling inspection of cosmetics last year.
Risk factors: the resurgence of the epidemic, the recovery of consumption is less than expected, and the industry competition intensifies.
