Core view
The 14th five year plan for modern energy system was released. In order to further promote the revolution of energy consumption, supply, technology and system, and do a good job in carbon peak and carbon neutralization, the national development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration recently issued the “14th five year plan” for modern energy system (hereinafter referred to as the “plan”). The plan sets forth China’s energy development policy, main objectives, tasks and measures, and is positioned as the overall blueprint and action program of the energy system during the 14th Five Year Plan period.
The plan sets targets in energy supply, low-carbon transformation, system efficiency and other aspects. In terms of energy supply guarantee, the plan points out that by 2025, China’s annual comprehensive energy production capacity will reach more than 4.6 billion tons of standard coal; In terms of low-carbon transformation of energy, carbon dioxide emissions per unit of GDP have decreased by 18% in five years. By 2025, the proportion of non fossil energy consumption will increase to about 20% and the proportion of non fossil energy power generation will reach about 39%; In terms of energy system efficiency, remarkable results have been achieved in energy conservation and consumption reduction, and the energy consumption per unit of GDP has decreased by 13.5% in five years.
Energy security and stable supply capacity should be put in the first place. Through reading the full text of the plan, we can find that the plan puts energy security and stable supply capacity in the first place. The first article of the basic principles of the plan points out that it is necessary to “ensure security”, coordinate development and security, adhere to the principle of establishing first and then breaking down, and make an overall plan, build a modern energy system on the premise of ensuring security, and constantly enhance the ability to deal with risks to ensure national energy security. In terms of development objectives, first of all, higher requirements are put forward for the guarantee capacity of energy supply.
Strengthen the security of coal and give play to the supporting and regulating role of coal and electricity. As China’s resource endowment, the plan points out that it is necessary to strengthen the role of coal safety support, build five coal supply guarantee bases in Shanxi, Western Mongolia, eastern Mongolia, Northern Shaanxi and Xinjiang, and enhance the cross regional supply guarantee capacity of coal. As China’s current main power supply, the plan points out that we should give full play to the supporting and regulatory role of coal power, make an overall plan to ensure power supply, reduce pollution and reduce carbon, reasonably build advanced coal power according to development needs, and accelerate the transformation of coal power from main power supply to basic guarantee and system regulatory power supply that provides reliable capacity, peak shaving and frequency regulation and other auxiliary services.
Under energy security, green and low-carbon transformation is the key direction. On the basis of ensuring energy security, the green and low-carbon transformation of energy will be the focus and main line of energy development in the future. Since the beginning of this century, the adjustment of the global energy structure has been accelerated, and the low-carbon transformation of the global energy structure has been accelerated. China’s low-carbon energy transformation has also entered an important window period. During the 13th Five Year Plan period, China continued to optimize its energy structure and achieved remarkable results in low-carbon transformation. The proportion of non fossil energy consumption reached 15.9%, and the proportion of coal consumption decreased to 56.8%. The installed capacity of non fossil energy power generation ranked first in the world. The 14th Five Year Plan period is the key to lay a good foundation for the realization of the double carbon goal.
Under the planning of modern energy system, the safe and stable supply of energy and green and low-carbon transformation will be the two main lines. Under the security and stable supply of energy, coal price is expected to be controlled within a reasonable range; Under the green transformation of energy, the construction and consumption of new energy such as scenery will be the focus. At the same time, the reform of power marketization is expected to bring double growth in the volume and price of new energy. We maintain the investment rating of “optimistic” in the industry, continue to be optimistic about the three main investment lines of large hydropower, scenery operators and clean energy transformation, and suggest paying attention to power operators with good cash flow. Recommend Huaneng Lancang River Hydropower Inc(600025) , Sichuan Chuantou Energy Co.Ltd(600674) , China Yangtze Power Co.Ltd(600900) , Huaneng Power International Inc(600011) electric power, Datang new energy and other companies.
Risk warning: the decline of coal price is less than expected; The consumption of new energy is less than expected;
