Key changes this week (03210327): ① Zhongfu Shenying applied for carbon fiber new shares this week, with a winning rate of about 0.04%; ② In March, the prosperity index of building materials industry returned to the boom range. ③ The general office of the Ministry of industry and information technology and other six departments jointly released the activity of green building materials to the countryside, which is expected to drive the green and low-carbon growth of the building materials industry and accelerate the transformation and upgrading of the industry. ④ 35. ⑤ In March, due to the impact of the epidemic and weather, the shipment in the mainstream market decreased by about 20%. ⑥ On March 22, the first three photovoltaic glass hearings were held, corresponding to Xinyi Suzhou, Flat Glass Group Co.Ltd(601865) Nantong and Jiangsu Kaisheng.
Core view:
(1) review of this week's key report: ① we recommend [ China Jushi Co.Ltd(600176) ] "the king of global glass fiber, a model made in China". We believe that the company's valuation and profit elasticity are expected to be poor. The current dynamic PE is 9x, PE is the lowest point in recent 10 years, Pb is the central position in recent 10 years, and the catalysts include overseas demand, low supply in China and stable demand. ② [ Luoyang Glass Company Limited(600876) ] "new power of photovoltaic glass, driving into the fast lane of growth" is recommended. We expect to form a nominal photovoltaic glass production capacity of 8180t / D by 2024, with a CAGR of 52% from 2020 to 2024. At the same time, the scale continues to expand and there is a lot of room for cost optimization. ③ The special report "increase the size of affordable housing and pay attention to energy-saving building materials, steel structure and prefabricated buildings".
(2) focusing on the performance expectation of the first quarter, we expect the glass fiber and retail building materials sectors to be relatively prominent, [ China Jushi Co.Ltd(600176) ] [ Jiangsu Changhai Composite Materials Co.Ltd(300196) ] is expected to show a simultaneous increase in volume and price, and benefit from overseas demand. In addition, we continue to be optimistic about the support of rigid demand + the restoration of the real estate boom, the superposition of the slowdown of hardcover, and the better cash flow and profit margin of retail and distribution mode. The core recommendation is [ Zhejiang Weixing New Building Materials Co.Ltd(002372) ], high-quality profitability and concentric circle acceleration; Focus on [ Beijing Oriental Yuhong Waterproof Technology Co.Ltd(002271) ] developed by C-end and integrated company, and [ Dehua Tb New Decoration Material Co.Ltd(002043) ] with outstanding consumer brand power.
(3) the demand of Yangchun was suppressed by the epidemic in March, and the pressure on cement storage was great: in late March, due to the recurrence of the epidemic in China's cement market and the superposition of rainstorms in some areas, the shipment rate of enterprises in mainstream areas generally decreased by about 20%. Affected by this, the cement price fluctuated and adjusted again. If it cannot be alleviated before the end of the month, some regions may extend the peak shifting production response.
(4) the real estate chain is expected to stabilize and recover from the bottom of the policy to the bottom of the market. Since September last year, the real estate policy has changed from "small launch and stable expectation" to "high-frequency launch and heavy landing". The end of the policy has gradually transitioned to the end of the market, and the contribution of the real estate chain is expected to improve marginally. Real estate sales is the source of confidence. Although some real estate enterprises still have the possibility of bond default in the near future, and the enterprise side risk has not been completely cleared, the overall process is coming to an end. In mid February, the "national measures for the supervision of pre-sale funds of commercial housing" was issued to improve the flexibility of the use of pre-sale funds and solve the liquidity of real estate enterprises to a certain extent. After the policy bottoms out, the small cycle of real estate is expected to recover, and the data of sales, commencement, construction and completion are gradually improved. At the current time point, the dynamic PE of consumer building materials elasticity leader in 2022 is generally 10-15x, and the core leader is 20-25x. We suggest paying attention to ① valuation and repair space; ② Profit expectation and repair space. A low to high sort of a low to high valuation: a low to high sort of a low to a high: a low to high sort of a low to a high: a low to a low to a low to a high: a low to a high to sort: the [[China United Plastic] for the [ ofthe valuation of a low to a low to a low to a high to sort: the [China United Plastic [China United Plastic] [[ 's [ ofchina's associated plastic [ 's 30073 [ for the 30073of a Keshun Waterproof Technologies Co.Ltd(300737) [ Guangdong Kinlong Hardware Products Co.Ltd(002791) ] [ Guangdong Kinlong Hardware Products Co.Ltd(002791) ].
(5) continuously prompt the infrastructure chain and recommend cement, pipe network construction, water reducing agent and waterproof. There is no shortage of infrastructure projects or funds, which is expected to hedge the downward pressure on the economy. Growth + cycle focus on the water reducer leader [ Sobute New Materials Co.Ltd(603916) ], reverse cycle + undervalued value combination, elasticity focus on [ Huaxin Cement Co.Ltd(600801) ] [ Gansu Shangfeng Cement Co.Ltd(000672) ], stability + green power [ Anhui Conch Cement Company Limited(600585) ], pipe network construction focus on [China Liansu].
(6) BIPV has broad prospects. We believe that in combination with the recovery rate and technical requirements, the early stage will focus on the industrial roof and the facade of public / municipal buildings, focusing on Luoyang Glass Company Limited(600876) , Zhejiang Southeast Space Frame Co.Ltd(002135) , Center International Group Co.Ltd(603098) , Beijing Oriental Yuhong Waterproof Technology Co.Ltd(002271) , Jiangsu Canlon Building Materials Co.Ltd(300715) .
Risk warning: policy changes are less than expected; The risk of credit tightening; The risk of continued tightening of real estate regulation; Epidemic risk.
