Demand: the off-season of Q1 in the 22nd year is not light, laying the foundation for the high prosperity of the whole year. China: the new grid connected capacity of photovoltaic in 2021 was 54.88gw, with a year-on-year increase of 39%. Among them, the centralized photovoltaic power station increased by 25.60gw, a year-on-year increase of 3%; Distributed photovoltaic added 29.28gw, a year-on-year increase of 101%. In 2022, based on the continuation of China’s distributed high boom, China’s new photovoltaic installed capacity from January to February reached 10.86gw, a year-on-year increase of 234%, and the off-season in the first quarter was not light. Overseas: Europe’s demand for photovoltaic energy surged due to the continued overweight of the European carbon neutrality target and the conflict between Russia and Ukraine this year. The German climate department proposed a new draft legislation in February to advance the goal of 100% renewable energy power generation to 2035, 15 years ahead of the previous goal. We expect the installed capacity of the EU to reach 36-40gw in 2022, an increase of 40% – 50% year-on-year. In addition, India began to levy tariffs on imported components and batteries in April. Affected by this, China’s component exports to India from January to February 2022 reached 20.630/26.095 billion yuan, an increase of 105% / 114% year-on-year.
Industrial chain: the price of silicon material remains high and the iteration of battery technology is accelerated: at the silicon material end, due to the high demand in the downstream of Q1, the price of silicon material is still at a high level. As of March 23, the price of polycrystalline silicon compact material is 243 yuan / kg, up 5.65% from the beginning of the year. With the gradual increase of new capacity, the total capacity is expected to exceed 1 million tons by the end of this year, and the price of silicon material is expected to enter a downward channel in the second half of 2022. At the silicon wafer end, due to the high price of silicon material and the shortage of quartz crucible caused by the epidemic, the price of silicon wafer has increased several times in Q1, and the second and third tier silicon wafer manufacturers are facing the pressure of raw material supply. The leader is expected to improve the market share through the supply chain management and control ability. At the battery end, the current technology iteration in the battery link is accelerated, and leading manufacturers such as Longji and Jingke accelerate the layout of new technologies respectively. From the perspective of component bidding, the average premium of TOPCON battery bidding projects in China is more than 0.1 yuan / W, and the downstream owners have a high acceptance of the premium of components equipped with new battery technology.
Export and installed capacity data: the export volume of modules increased rapidly, and the installed capacity of PV in China from January to February exceeded expectations. In terms of export data, the export amount of battery modules and Inverters from January to February was 46.7/5.4 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 110 / 19%. It has been verified that it is not light in the off-season. According to the calculation, about 26gw of components will be exported from January to February, with a year-on-year increase of about 80%; Among them, due to the impact of tariff policy, India’s rush for loading came. From January to February, the export volume of modules was about 7.5-8gw, with a year-on-year increase of about 240% – 265%. The enthusiasm for photovoltaic installation in Europe was high, the export volume of modules increased by 71% year-on-year, and the demand continued to increase. In addition, as mentioned earlier, China’s installed capacity data in the first two months exceeded expectations.
Investment suggestion: the output of Q1 photovoltaic industry increased month on month in 22 years, the off-season was not light, and the tone of high prosperity throughout the year was laid. The performance of Q1 industrial chain company may exceed expectations. At the same time, the curtain of technological transformation of photovoltaic cells has been opened. In the process of forming a virtuous cycle of production, large-scale effect, cost reduction and continuous production expansion, enterprises enjoying technological dividends are expected to have the dual advantages of increasing market share and enjoying technological premium. Main line 1: recommend integrated module enterprises Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) , Jingke energy, Ja Solar Technology Co.Ltd(002459) , Trina Solar Co.Ltd(688599) , Trina Solar Co.Ltd(688599) ; Inverter enterprises Sungrow Power Supply Co.Ltd(300274) , Ginlong Technologies Co.Ltd(300763) , Ningbo Deye Technology Co.Ltd(605117) , Jiangsu Goodwe Power Supply Technology Co.Ltd(688390) , Hemai, etc; Main line 2: the curtain of battery technology reform is opened, and relevant manufacturers are expected to enjoy the technology premium. Jingke energy and Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) ; Pay attention to Hainan Drinda Automotive Trim Co.Ltd(002865) , Jolywood (Suzhou) Sunwatt Co.Ltd(300393) , etc. At the same time, the supporting facilities of other links of the industrial chain are also very important. Tianjin Zhonghuan Semiconductor Co.Ltd(002129) , Kbc Corporation Ltd(688598) , Qingdao Gaoce Technology Co.Ltd(688556) , etc. are recommended. Three mainmainmainline three: looking ahead to the second, third, and fourth quarter, a stable pattern, steady price, steady volume, steady price, steady price, and increased volume, enjoying the high boom of photovoltaic, and enjoying the high boom of photovoltaic. The third mainmainmainline three: looking ahead to the second, third, third, and fourth quarter quarter, three, three, three, three, three, three, three, four, four, three, four, four, four, four seasons to look ahead to the second, three, four, four, four, four seasons, stable patterns, steady price, steady price, steady volume, steady volume, steady volume, steady price, and volume, enjoying the high boom of photovoltaic, enjoying the high boom boom of photovoltaic, the leading accessories of accessories to enjoy the high boom of photovoltaic. The Poten Environment Group Co.Ltd(603603) Shenzhen Ellassay Fashion Co.Ltd(603808) 06 wait. Others: focus on distributed photovoltaic and BIPV industrial chain.
Risk tips: upstream raw material prices fluctuate, terminal demand is less than expected, and technological development is less than expected
