Review of sales data: the passenger car production and sales data of February 2022 released by the passenger Federation: the retail sales volume of that month was 1.246 million, with a year-on-year increase of + 4.2% and a month on month decrease of – 40%; The wholesale sales volume was 1.455 million vehicles, with a year-on-year increase of + 26.9% and a month on month increase of – 32.6%; The output was 1.492 million vehicles, with a year-on-year increase of + 31.4% and a month on month decrease of – 27%. According to the retail target survey of the passenger Federation in March, about 80% of manufacturers’ retail sales fell by more than double digits year-on-year in March. It is preliminarily estimated that the narrow passenger car retail market in March was about 1.58 million, a year-on-year decrease of 10.4%.
In February, wholesale was better than retail, independent brands performed well, and the growth rate was far higher than the industry average. In February 2022, the retail sales volume of passenger cars reached 1.246 million, with a year-on-year increase of + 4.2% and a month on month increase of – 40%. As some enterprises started earlier after the Spring Festival, and the epidemic spread in February exceeded expectations, prompting a large number of middle-aged migrant workers to return, the structural recovery of the auto market is facing better opportunities. From the perspective of structure, (1) 160000 luxury cars were retailed in February, with a year-on-year increase of – 3% and a month on month increase of – 44%, which failed to continue the trend in January; (2) The retail sales of 540000 self owned brands were + 14% year on year and – 42% month on month. The performance of leading enterprises of self owned brands was differentiated. The brands of traditional automobile enterprises such as Byd Company Limited(002594) showed a high growth year on year; (3) The retail sales of joint venture brands were 550000, with a year-on-year increase of – 1% and a month on month increase of – 36%, of which the Japanese share was 23.1%, with a year-on-year increase of + 1.6pct, the German share was 20.5%, with a year-on-year increase of – 4pct, and the American share was 9.1% and a year-on-year increase of – 0.6%.
The sales of new energy vehicles recovered, which was in contrast to the trend of traditional fuel vehicles, and the penetration rate rose to 21.8%. In February, the retail sales volume of new energy passenger vehicles reached 272000, with a year-on-year increase of + 180.5% and a month on month increase of – 22.6%; The wholesale sales volume reached 317000 vehicles, with a year-on-year increase of + 189.1% and a month on month decrease of – 24.1%. The month on month decrease of wholesale and retail sales is less than that in February of previous years. It is expected that it is related to the car purchase tide in the school season after the Spring Festival and the strong demand for new energy caused by the recent high oil price. In mid February, Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) retail penetration rate was 21.8%, up 13 percentage points year on year. Diversified new energy passenger vehicle market, Byd Company Limited(002594) pure electric and plug-in hybrid dual drive consolidate the leading position of independent brand new energy; The performance of traditional automobile enterprises represented by Saic Motor Corporation Limited(600104) and Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) is relatively outstanding. There are five enterprises with wholesale sales exceeding 10000 vehicles, including Byd Company Limited(002594) (87000 vehicles), Tesla China (57000 vehicles), SAIC GM Wuling (26000 vehicles), Geely Automobile (14000 vehicles) and Chery Automobile (10000 vehicles). In terms of models, the wholesale sales volume of pure electric vehicles in February was 245000, a year-on-year increase of + 161.7%; The sales volume of plug-in hybrid vehicles was 72000, a year-on-year increase of + 350.9%. In terms of structure, the wholesale penetration rate of independent brand new energy vehicles is 38%, that of luxury vehicles is 29.4%, and that of mainstream joint ventures is only 3.3%.
The prosperity of independent brands in the head of investment suggestions continues to rise. We suggest to continue to pay attention to Chongqing Changan Automobile Company Limited(000625) ( Chongqing Changan Automobile Company Limited(000625) . SZ), Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) ( Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) . SH / 2333. HK), Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) ( Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) . SH); It is suggested to pay attention to the comprehensive leader Huayu Automotive Systems Company Limited(600741) ( Huayu Automotive Systems Company Limited(600741) . SH), the subject of scarce lighting controller Keboda Technology Co.Ltd(603786) ( Keboda Technology Co.Ltd(603786) . SH), and the supplier of active and passive safety for intelligent driving Ningbo Joyson Electronic Corp(600699) ( Ningbo Joyson Electronic Corp(600699) . SH).
Risk tip 1. The risk of car sales not reaching the expectation. 2. The risk of adverse impact of rising raw material prices on profits. 3. Systemic risks affected by uncertain factors such as economic downturn. 4. Industrial chain risk caused by chip shortage.
