Crude oil related information:
Crude oil and related inventory: on March 18, 2022, the commercial inventory of crude oil in the United States was 413.4 million barrels, with a weekly decrease of 2.5 million barrels; Gasoline inventory was 238 million barrels, with a weekly decrease of 2.9 million barrels; Distillate oil inventory was 121.1 million barrels, with a weekly decrease of 2.1 million barrels; Propane inventory was 3356.4 million barrels, an increase of 256000 barrels per week. U.S. crude oil production and number of drilling rigs: on March 18, 2022, the U.S. crude oil production was 11.6 million barrels / day, the weekly number remained unchanged, an increase of Shanghai Pudong Development Bank Co.Ltd(600000) barrels / day compared with a year ago. On March 25, the number of drilling rigs in the United States was 670, with an increase of 7 in the week and 253 in the year; The number of drilling rigs in Canada is 140, with a weekly decrease of 36 and an annual increase of 59. Among them, there are 531 oil production rigs in the United States, an increase of 7 in the week and 207 in the year. Price change:
Among the 188 chemical products we monitored, the top three products with price increases this week were formic acid (up 42.0%), liquid chlorine (up 41.8%) and urea International (up 23.8%); The top three declines were 107 rubber (down 14.8%), raw rubber (down 14.6%) and DMC (down 13.2%).
Monthly, the top three products with price increases were urea International (up 67.0%), sulfuric acid (up 62.1%) and thermal coal (Qinhuangdao) (up 61.0%); The top three declines were glyphosate (down 35.5%), glycine (down 28.8%) and glyphosate (down 15.8%). Price difference change:
The top three products with price difference increase this week are polyvinyl alcohol price difference (up 168.6%), formic acid price difference (up 61.4%) and R134a price difference (up 39.9%); The top three declines were polyethylene spread (down 211.3%), butyl acrylate spread (down 151.0%) and DMAC spread (down 129.6%).
Monthly, the top three products with price difference increase were styrene (up 7182.2%), R410A (up 500.0%) and polyvinyl alcohol (up 106.7%); The top three declines were R134a price difference (down 6793.5%), coal head ethylene glycol price difference (down 1022.4%) and diammonium phosphate (down 303.4%).
Recently, the oil price is at a high level. The market is worried that the profitability of large refining and chemical will be affected after the oil price exceeds $80 / barrel. In terms of refined oil, as China’s refined oil pricing mechanism is more market-oriented, in the range of 40-130 US dollars / barrel, as long as the oil price does not rise or fall sharply, there is a high probability that there will be a reasonable profit range for refined oil in the future. In terms of chemicals, due to the existence of supply side constraints, the rising probability of cost side can be transmitted to the downstream. At present, the price difference of chemicals represented by polyethylene is at the bottom and the downward space is small. It is suggested to pay attention to the investment opportunities of Rongsheng Petro Chemical Co.Ltd(002493) ( Rongsheng Petro Chemical Co.Ltd(002493) , buy), Hengli Petrochemical Co.Ltd(600346) ( Hengli Petrochemical Co.Ltd(600346) , buy), Tongkun Group Co.Ltd(601233) ( Tongkun Group Co.Ltd(601233) , buy).
The conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the rise of crude oil and other commodities and the rise of inflation. It is suggested to pay attention to opportunities related to agrochemicals. In terms of chemical fertilizer, due to the extremely limited new production capacity of global chemical fertilizer supply, the global supply and demand of chemical fertilizer maintain a fragile and tight balance. Although the recent price is relatively stable, there are expectations of continued price rise and trading opportunities in the sector from the recent rise of chemical fertilizer targets in US stocks. It is recommended to pay attention to Yunnan Yuntianhua Co.Ltd(600096) (60096, overweight), Hubei Xingfa Chemicals Group Co.Ltd(600141) ( Hubei Xingfa Chemicals Group Co.Ltd(600141) , buy), Anhui Sierte Fertilizer Industry Ltd.Company(002538) ( Anhui Sierte Fertilizer Industry Ltd.Company(002538) , buy), Sichuan Meifeng Chemical Industry Co.Ltd(000731) ( Sichuan Meifeng Chemical Industry Co.Ltd(000731) , not rated) Yangmei Chemical Co.Ltd(600691) ( Yangmei Chemical Co.Ltd(600691) , not rated), Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Co.Ltd(000792) ( Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Co.Ltd(000792) , not rated), etc. In terms of pesticides, high food prices support the demand and price acceptance of pesticides, and pay attention to the globally distributed pesticide enterprises with outstanding competitiveness Shandong Weifang Rainbow Chemical Co.Ltd(301035) ( Shandong Weifang Rainbow Chemical Co.Ltd(301035) , buy).
Risk tips
The price difference between ethylene and oil price is further narrowed, the demand for chemicals is lower than expected, the price of crude oil fluctuates sharply, geopolitics, repeated epidemics, etc.
