Event:
At the end of the 21st century and the spring of the 22nd year, Omicron mutant swept the world again, and the number of confirmed cases increased sharply.
(1) covid-19 specific drugs have been proved to be effective in reducing the severity and mortality of covid-19 patients. MPP announced that Pfizer and MSD specific drugs were awarded to cooperate with Chinese enterprises on March 17 and January 20, respectively. Tengsheng Huachuang also launched ambacizumab injection and romistumab injection, which were written into the diagnosis and treatment plan for covid-19 pneumonia as the first covid-19 neutralizing antibody in China.
(2) CDC data confirmed that the risk of covid-19 infection and death in the unvaccinated population was 13.9 times and 53.2 times higher than that in the fully vaccinated population after booster vaccination.
(3) on March 11, covid-19 virus antigen detection application scheme (Trial) was launched. China's epidemic prevention and control entered the monitoring mode of "antigen screening and nucleic acid diagnosis". Antigen detection has become an important supplementary means based on nucleic acid detection,
Comments:
Covid-19 specific drugs and its industrial chain breed market opportunities and promote the development of cdmo in China:
Pfizer paxlovid has reduced the risk of hospitalization and death of high-risk covid-19 patients by 89%, and the demand in the end market will increase significantly. As China's first covid-19 oral drug, it has been urgently approved by the China food and Drug Administration for listing and listed in the covid-19 diagnosis and treatment guidelines. China has an emergency reserve demand for small molecule oral covid-19 drugs, and Chinese enterprises authorized by MPP are expected to quickly seize the incremental market. As an effective treatment, methadone is expected to increase rapidly in the market with huge demand gap. The transfer of global cdmo orders to emerging market countries has become a trend. The cooperation orders between Pfizer, MSD and other large pharmaceutical companies and Chinese cdmo enterprises have been implemented. China's leading cdmo enterprises have benefited, and the revenue is expected to grow rapidly. Leading enterprises with large-scale supply capacity related to specific drugs will benefit from the increase of upstream demand. The R & D and production of covid-19 small molecule drugs in China need to continue to promote autonomy. We can pay attention to the research and promotion of small molecule drugs by Chinese enterprises. The neutralizing antibody treatment scheme of Tengsheng Huachuang has been proved to be effective. At present, preventive research is being carried out to expand the population with poor vaccine response.
Vaccine booster is an effective means of epidemic prevention:
On the basis of continuous variation of virus strains, vaccine enhancers, as an effective means of prevention and treatment, have become the main direction of vaccine companies. Chinese clover and Cansino Biologics Inc(688185) enterprises have put forward vaccine booster solutions for Omicron mutant, and the data are good. The mRNA covid-19 vaccine developed jointly by Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical (Group) Co.Ltd(600196) has been widely popularized overseas, Hong Kong and Taiwan.
The demand for antigen self-test products is expected to grow explosively:
The long time cycle of antigen detection registration approval process, the requirements of clinical trials and availability limit the speed of new enterprises entering the market. Enterprises with mature technology are expected to quickly put into production and seize the market.
Our views and investment suggestions:
It is suggested to pay attention to Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical (Group) Co.Ltd(600196) (2196. HK) that has obtained MPP license to produce Pfizer and MSD at the same time; Tengshengbo medicine (2137. HK), which has the first covid-19 neutralizing antibody treatment scheme in China; Ge Li pharmaceutical (1672. HK) providing ritonavir tablets, the key raw material of paxlovid; Covid-19 small molecule drug enterprises Shanghai Junshi Biosciences Co.Ltd(688180) (1877. HK) and Xiansheng Pharmaceutical (2096. HK) independently developed; Cdmo enterprises benefiting from covid-19 specific drug orders Asymchem Laboratories (Tianjin) Co.Ltd(002821) (6821. HK); Biological vaccine (HKB); The antigen self-test target is Beijing huaketai Biotechnology Co., Ltd. (Kexing biological SVA).
