Core view
Industry: sales are still relatively low, and land acquisition by state-owned and central enterprises is still the mainstream. In the first two months of 2022, the sales are still relatively sluggish, and there is no significant improvement. In February, the sales area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium-sized cities decreased by 27% year-on-year and 42% month on month; Among them, the sales area of first tier cities was 2.21 million square meters, down 7% year-on-year and 34% month on month; The sales area of second tier cities was 3.58 million square meters, down 23% year-on-year and 42% month on month; The sales area of the third tier cities was 1.36 million square meters, down 51% year-on-year and 51% month on month. From January to February 2022, the sales area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium-sized cities decreased by 28% year-on-year, and the first, second and third tier cities decreased by 22%, 17% and 50% year-on-year respectively.
In February 2022, the land transaction area / supply area of Baicheng was 52%, down 51 PCT from the previous month, and the premium rate was 3.4%, down 0.5 PCT from the previous month; Among them, the premium rate of first tier cities was 4.5%, an increase of 2.7pct over the previous month; The premium rate of second tier cities was 0.5%, down 5.2pct from the previous month; The premium rate of third tier cities was 0.8%, down 1.9pct from the previous month.
Among the five cities that have completed the first batch of centralized land supply, land acquisition by state-owned enterprises is still the mainstream, and the proportion of land acquisition by state-owned enterprises in Beijing, Xiamen and Fuzhou is 94%, 78% and 83% respectively; Local private enterprises in Qingdao and Hefei were active, and the proportion of land acquisition by state-owned and central enterprises was 40% and 38% respectively, with a significant decline. On the whole, the proportion of land traded at a premium has increased compared with the last time, and the land premium rate has increased to varying degrees. Among them, the premium rates of Hefei, Xiamen, Beijing, Fuzhou and Qingdao are 11.2%, 6.8%, 4.5%, 4.2% and 2.0% respectively; It increased by 4.7, 4.1, 3.5, 1.2 and 1.3 PCT respectively compared with the last time. The land market seems to have recovered, but we believe that the sales expectation has not warmed up, the attitude of real estate enterprises to “set production by sales” is difficult to change, the short-term recovery rate of land auction in some cities driven by state-owned enterprises, local urban investment and private enterprises is difficult to sustain, and it will take some time for the land market to fully recover its vitality.
Sector: the excess return has been realized, and the overall valuation is still low. Since the release of the last strategy report, the real estate sector has risen by 3.6%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 12.7 percentage points and ranking second among 31 industries. According to the consensus expectation of wind, according to the latest closing date, the dynamic PE of the sector in 2022 is 5.7 times, 7.5% lower than the bottom valuation level (6.1 times dynamic PE) on January 3, 2019, which is still at the lowest level in history.
There is still no room for significant improvement in the game side, and there is still no policy suggestion. At present, the industry fundamentals have not been significantly improved, the sales side is still relatively depressed, and it will take time for the land market to recover its vitality. We believe that before the land market recovers completely, the pace of policy relaxation will not stop, and there is still much room for policy game. Similar policies issued by Zhengzhou and Harbin will follow in other regions, and real estate stocks are still Beijing Zhidemai Technology Co.Ltd(300785) entering. In the medium and short term, with the greater relaxation of policies in non restricted areas, the second tier leading real estate enterprises with more third and fourth tier cities will benefit more; In the medium and long term, with the withdrawal of the fast turnover mode from the historical stage and the repair of the long-term balance sheet of real estate enterprises, the leading real estate enterprises with stable operation and outstanding comprehensive strength will continue to benefit. April combination recommendation China Merchants Property Operation & Service Co.Ltd(001914) , Seazen Holdings Co.Ltd(601155) .
Risk tip: the downward trend of fundamentals exceeds market expectations, and the policy cannot be warmed up for a long time.
