Event: from March 25 to 27, at the 2022 high-level forum of China electric vehicle hundred people’s Congress with the theme of “meeting the new stage of market-oriented development of new energy vehicles”, the topic of batteries and other core parts remained the focus of hot discussion among the guests.
It is an old saying that “the supply of raw materials is tight and the price is high”. Administrative guidance will accelerate the process of self supply of resources in China. At the meeting, Xin Guobin, Vice Minister of the Ministry of industry and information technology, said that the current sharp rise in the price of raw materials needs high attention and will moderately accelerate the progress of China’s resource development, while Ouyang Minggao, academician of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, predicted that the balance between supply and demand of lithium resources may return to normal in 2-3 years. Since 20h2, the high economic growth of new energy vehicles and the mismatch of lithium ore production expansion cycle have promoted the price of lithium carbonate to rise from 50000 yuan / ton to 500000 yuan / ton, which has brought a great test to the healthy development of the industrial chain. Although the Ministry of industry and information technology held a symposium to guide the price to return to rationality, 70% of China’s lithium ore and lithium carbonate supply comes from Western Australia and South America. The market mechanism determines that the lithium price is dominated by supply and demand and difficult to administrative intervention. Therefore, accelerating China’s resource development is a top priority. Combined with the progress of methyl card promotion exceeding expectations, Chengxin Lithium Group Co.Ltd(002240) Byd Company Limited(002594) strong cooperation is expected to enjoy a high profit premium in 22-23 years for mining enterprises with high-quality resources and leading enterprises with a high proportion of self supply in China.
The transformation of new battery technology gives birth to new opportunities for the development of the industrial chain The Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) conference said that the third generation CTP technology was launched. Under the same chemical system and the same battery pack size, its power can be increased by 13% compared with the 4680 system, and will be officially released in April this year. Under the market-oriented development trend of new energy vehicles, the demand for long mileage is expected to promote the transformation of battery technology. In addition to CTP, Tesla is expected to lead the mass production of 4680 electric vehicles in 22 years, and China Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) and overseas Panasonic will take the lead in benefiting from the first mover capacity planning. We believe that the high-performance technology route will promote new opportunities for the development of industrial chains such as silicon-based negative electrodes and single-walled carbon nanotubes.
The penetration rate of new energy vehicles is expected to continue to rise, and it is optimistic that the plug-in hybrid will further increase its share Byd Company Limited(002594) Wang Chuanfu said that China’s penetration rate was estimated to exceed 28% in March this year and 35% by the end of this year. We believe that in the post subsidy era, new energy vehicles will gradually shift to personal demand, and the goal of 50% penetration rate in 2030 will be clearly achieved. Previously, plug-in hybrid vehicles accounted for only 19% affected by subsidies. We expect that the penetration rate of plug-in hybrid vehicles will continue to rise with the pressure of battery cost and the increase of urban transportation demand for the first vehicle of the family.
Investment suggestions: pay attention to the growth opportunities of lithium battery industry chain brought by the continuous expansion of battery manufacturers’ production capacity under the high climate of the new energy vehicle industry, pay attention to the negative electrode manufacturers who layout new materials under the improvement of battery technology, pay attention to the leading positive electrode material manufacturers with deep layout of high nickel ternary technology in positive electrode materials and obvious advantages in overseas business expansion, and pay attention to the mining enterprises with high-quality resources in China and the leading lithium mining enterprises with high proportion of self supply.
Risk tip: the production and sales of new energy vehicles are less than expected, the competition in the lithium battery industry is intensified, the raw material prices in the industrial chain fluctuate sharply, and the new energy vehicle policy is less than expected.
