Recently, the stock price performance of the leading express companies fluctuated due to the disturbance of the epidemic, but we judged that the impact of the short-term local epidemic rebound on the express industry was less than expected from the demand side, shipping side and delivery side as a whole. It is suggested to pay attention to the allocation opportunities after the adjustment of the faucet, and still be optimistic about the high elasticity of the bottom reversal value repair.
Key investment points
Demand side: the epidemic will catalyze the trend of online consumption, and the demand for online shopping is still growing
During the epidemic period, subject to the requirements of the sealing and control policy, it is difficult to open up offline consumption channels and catalyze the transfer of consumption to online. During the period of covid-19 in 2020, the penetration rate of physical online shopping in China increased from 21.5% in February to 24.1% in April, and the penetration rate of online shopping in the United States increased from 11.2% in the first quarter of 2020 to 14.7% in the second quarter of 2020. Therefore, from the upstream driving level, the epidemic may catalyze the online trend of consumption and increase the penetration rate of online shopping.
Shipping end: strictly eliminate and ensure the operation, and the transportation is basically not affected
According to the suggestions on production and operation specifications of postal express industry during epidemic prevention and control (Seventh Edition) issued by the state post administration, the express industry implemented zoning and hierarchical prevention and control during the epidemic period, and strictly eliminated mail express processing places and means of transport, but there was no mandatory prohibition on picking up and transportation. In fact, the current epidemic closure and control is only to implement traffic control in local areas, local road sections and specific periods. For example, from 5:00 on March 28 to 5:00 on April 1, Pudong New Area and other key areas to the East and south of Huangpu River will be temporarily closed, and from 3:00 on April 1 to 3:00 on April 5, 2022, Minhang District, Xuhui District, Jiading District, Huangpu District and other key areas to the west of Huangpu River and adjacent areas will be temporarily closed; However, during covid-19 in 2020, toll stations were closed on a large scale across the country. Since January 25, more than 30 provinces and cities across the country have started level-1 emergency response and closed some highway toll stations one after another. The current logistics and transportation obstruction is much smaller than that in 2020.
Dispatch end: the epidemic situation has led to the delay of time limit and the change of pick-up mode, and the impact of the total amount is expected to be limited
The express delivery industry provides residents with necessary receiving and dispatching services of living materials, which is an important unit of living security. According to our analysis, the short-term control of the epidemic situation has brought about the delay of delivery timeliness and the change of pick-up mode. Taking Shanghai as an example, after a new round of segmented and grid nucleic acid screening is carried out throughout the city, residential areas in the sealed area implement closed management, but contactless distribution can still be implemented for takeout and express delivery necessary for basic life. On the one hand, the reduction of personnel flow leads to the delay of express delivery to a certain extent. On the other hand, contactless distribution replaces post station, cabinet entry, door-to-door and other receiving methods, but it is not impossible to provide delivery services.
The express delivery enterprises count the quantity of express delivery orders according to the standard of delivery, which is affected by short-term delivery, and the apparent quantity of express delivery orders is affected in a short time or in a short time. However, after the epidemic situation improves and the stagnant pressure packages are delivered in a centralized manner, we expect the cumulative quantity of express delivery orders to recover more than expected, and we believe that the short-term local impact is less than expected.
Pay attention to the opportunities after the adjustment of the leader, and the short-term epidemic situation will not change repeatedly. The value will be repaired and the bottom will be reversed with high elasticity and great logic
Recently, the performance of leading stock prices fluctuated due to the disturbance of the epidemic, but we judged that the impact of the short-term local epidemic rebound on the express industry was lower than expected from the demand side, shipping side and delivery side as a whole. Looking forward to the follow-up, on the one hand, Shenzhen has restored the normal production and living order of the whole city since March 28, on the other hand, the preliminary plan for a new round of block and grid management in Shanghai is to be unsealed at 3:00 on April 5. In addition, SF Hangzhou Express Business has resumed operation since March 24 (according to Zhejiang Daily) and Jinhua express business has resumed operation since March 28 (according to guangming.com). It is expected that the impact of epidemic sealing and control on express delivery performance will be limited, and the logic of high single volume growth throughout the year will not be changed. Similarly, during covid-19 in 2020, after the relaxation of control, the single volume of the industry increased by 37% year-on-year in the second quarter, 12 percentage points higher than the year-on-year growth rate in 2019
The single volume increased, the price rebounded and the cost decreased. The company paid attention to the repair of performance exceeding expectations throughout the year. For the value restoration after the vicious price war, we believe that we should distinguish three levels: 1) policy control, 2) price return, and 3) profit restoration. In the second and third quarters of last year, with the introduction of the policy, the industry price gradually returned to a benign trend. After the policy and price repair, it has entered the most essential level of value repair, that is, the level of profit repair. We analyze the high increase of e-commerce express orders, the rise of prices and the decline of costs in 2022, and pay attention to the repair of performance exceeding expectations throughout the year.
It is recommended to focus on the leading target with high cost performance after adjustment. In terms of franchise system, we are optimistic about Yunda Holding Co.Ltd(002120) , the improvement of value certainty, Zhongtong express, the leader of single volume profit, and Yto Express Group Co.Ltd(600233) ; In terms of direct marketing, it is suggested to pay attention to the problem of network extension and barrier upgrading under the broad layout of traditional + emerging business forms S.F.Holding Co.Ltd(002352) .
Risk tip: loose policy control leads to the deterioration of price war; Repeated outbreaks; The growth of physical online shopping fell.
