Core view
Demand is supported, supply is limited, and attention is paid to the high boom investment opportunities of glass fiber yarn. In March, China Jushi Co.Ltd(600176) and Shandong Fiberglass Group Co.Ltd(605006) issued business announcements from January to February respectively, in which the total profit of China Jushi Co.Ltd(600176) 1-february increased by more than 60% year-on-year Shandong Fiberglass Group Co.Ltd(605006) 1-february operating revenue 570 million yuan, yoy + 12%; The total profit is 150 million yuan, yoy + 27%. On the premise of last year's high base, the enterprise can still achieve medium and high-speed growth, mainly because the price of glass fiber products remains high, and the company's products show a high-end trend. At present, the glass fiber yarn market still shows a high prosperity. The quotation of 2400tex winding direct yarn is stable at the level of 6 Tongling Nonferrous Metals Group Co.Ltd(000630) 0 yuan / ton, and the high level is stable for more than a year. The overall demand is strong, especially in the overseas market. It is estimated that the current production capacity of glass fiber is 6.15 million tons, including 960000 tons of electronic yarn and 5.19 million tons of glass fiber yarn. It is estimated that in 2022, there will be only 6 production lines for the resumption or ignition of glass fiber yarn, with a total of 650000 tons. There are seven production lines with the possibility of cold repair for more than 8 years, totaling 480000 tons. It is estimated that the annual net new production capacity is only 170000 tons, accounting for 3.3% of the production capacity in progress. The annual supply of glass fiber yarn presents a situation of limited increment and high cold repair pressure. From the demand side, from January to February 2022, fixed asset investment - construction and installation engineering, wind power investment, automobile output, industrial added value and overseas export volume achieved growth rates of 12.4%, - 27.5%, 10.7%, 12.8% and 50.7% respectively. There was a good growth in demand in other fields except wind power. We believe that there has been a clear inflection point in the amount of wind power bidding since 2021. Historically, the growth rate of wind power investment generally lags behind that of wind power bidding for 3-4 quarters. The year-on-year medium and high-speed growth of wind power investment in the middle and late 2022 is a high probability event. With the recovery of wind power demand, the demand for glass fiber yarn may further increase, which together with overseas demand has become the two important supports for glass fiber demand this year. At that time, the tight balance between supply and demand of the industry is expected to be further tightened to further improve the prosperity of the industry. On the whole, the supply of glass fiber yarn in 2022 is very limited, but the demand is supported by wind power and overseas. The release probability of wind power demand is high in the second half of the year, and the high prosperity is expected to continue further. At present, the price earnings ratios of China Jushi Co.Ltd(600176) and Shandong Fiberglass Group Co.Ltd(605006) , Jiangsu Changhai Composite Materials Co.Ltd(300196) 2022 are not more than 10xpe, which has a high margin of safety. It is suggested to pay attention to the valuation and repair opportunities of glass fiber sector under the continuous release of industry prosperity.
Market review this week: this week (2022 / 03 / 212022 / 03 / 25), the building materials sector (CITIC) index increased by - 3.7%, and the excess return relative to CSI 300 was - 1.6%. Since the beginning of the year, the yield of the building materials sector has been - 16.1%, which is 0.8% higher than that of the CSI 300. Last week, the yield of the preferred portfolio was - 4.1%, compared with the excess yield of the building materials index was - 0.3%, and the cumulative yield / excess yield was - 19.4 / 8.3%.
Overview of weekly data of building materials: the average price of float glass nationwide this week was 104.31 yuan / weight box, down 8.1% month on month and 10.5% year-on-year. The inventory was 56.45 million weight boxes, up 5.08% month on month and 91.6% year-on-year. We believe that the scale of cold repair in the industry is expected to increase in 2022, and the completion of real estate will still maintain a small growth, but we should pay attention to the growth of actual orders of processing plants in the short term. This week, the average price of national mainstream winding direct yarn was 6300 yuan / ton, up 0.4% month on month; The average price of electronic yarn was 10000 yuan / ton, down 0.4% month on month; The average transaction price of the national cement market this week was 509 yuan / ton, down 1.4% month on month. Glass fiber still maintains a tight balance between supply and demand, and the high price is expected to be maintained. This week, the cement delivery rate fell 4pct to 56.5% month on month; The storage capacity ratio was 65.7%, up 7.5pct month on month. Cement shipments fell and storage capacity ratio rebounded. We believe that the current nationwide epidemic has a certain impact on the construction industry, resulting in weak data performance of shipments and storage capacity ratio.
Investment proposal and investment object
Key recommendation Csg Holding Co.Ltd(000012) ( Csg Holding Co.Ltd(000012) , buy); Under the situation of infrastructure recovery, early cycle products are recommended Sobute New Materials Co.Ltd(603916) ( Sobute New Materials Co.Ltd(603916) , buy), Beijing Oriental Yuhong Waterproof Technology Co.Ltd(002271) ( Beijing Oriental Yuhong Waterproof Technology Co.Ltd(002271) , buy). It is suggested to pay attention to the cement faucet Huaxin Cement Co.Ltd(600801) ( Huaxin Cement Co.Ltd(600801) , not rated), Anhui Conch Cement Company Limited(600585) ( Anhui Conch Cement Company Limited(600585) , not rated), and Triumph Science & Technology Co.Ltd(600552) ( Triumph Science & Technology Co.Ltd(600552) , not rated). Preferred combination of Oriental building materials next week: Csg Holding Co.Ltd(000012) , Sobute New Materials Co.Ltd(603916) , Beijing Oriental Yuhong Waterproof Technology Co.Ltd(002271) , Anhui Conch Cement Company Limited(600585) , Huaxin Cement Co.Ltd(600801) , Triumph Science & Technology Co.Ltd(600552)
Risk tips
The growth rate of infrastructure / real estate investment did not meet expectations, and the price of raw materials fluctuated sharply
