Silicon material is the main supply bottleneck in 2021, and other links are in the state of overcapacity. Therefore, silicon is the king of the industrial chain in 2021, and the supply of silicon material is determined by the annual installed capacity. In 2021, due to the higher than expected silicon inventory and slicing, there was a certain increase in supply in 2021, and the price game was serious in the whole year, but the final installed capacity still exceeded our expectation, completing the installed capacity of more than 160gw, with a year-on-year increase of 17%. The price rise of the industrial chain has affected China's ground demand, but the distributed has reduced the costs of cables, combiner boxes, supports, cultivated land taxes and fees. At the price of 2.07 yuan / W, the IRR is still 9% +. China's distributed demand is strong, with an increase of 21.5gw in 2021, an increase of 115% at the same time; Industry and Commerce increased 9gw, with an increase of 80% at the same time, and the increase in high electricity price areas such as Shandong and Hebei was obvious. Overseas carbon neutralization policy + electricity price rise drives growth, and has high acceptance of high component prices.
In 2022, the supply of silicon material will be 8 China Baoan Group Co.Ltd(000009) 00000 tons (including inventory), corresponding to about 250gw. At the same time, the demand is strong. China has a number of policy support, distributed high yield and rapid growth of demand. In the second half of the year, the price reduction of the industrial chain will drive the acceleration of the volume of ground power stations. We expect that China's demand will be about 90gw in 22 years, with a simultaneous increase of 60% +, of which distributed accounts for 50% +. The development of new energy in overseas European and American markets will accelerate due to the rise of electricity price + consideration of energy security, We expect the overseas demand to be 150160gw in 22 years, with an increase of 30% +. Therefore, we expect the global photovoltaic installed capacity to reach 240250gw in 2022, with an increase of 50% +.
The price of battery raw materials has risen rapidly, and the prices of battery factories and car enterprises have increased twice. At present, the price rise of lithium carbonate is slowing down, the general trend of electrification, and the driving force of terminal demand is very sufficient. In March, the price of lithium carbonate exceeded 500000 yuan / ton, and cobalt and nickel metals increased in varying degrees. We expect that the current battery cost has increased by 0.2-0,3 yuan / wh, which has been adjusted to the downstream by about 20%, and the rise in raw material cost has been conducted smoothly. The price of automobile enterprises has been adjusted twice recently, with a price increase of 10000 yuan left and right, and the cost of some raw materials has increased. We believe that at present, electric vehicles have entered a period of rapid growth, the general trend of electrification has been completed, and consumer education has been completed. In the case of rising oil prices, electric vehicles have completed the full life cycle cost parity to offset the rise of some car purchase prices. 2022 is the new model year. Many new models such as new forces + Chinese independent car enterprises have been launched with a higher degree of richness, which will become the main driving force of China's sales in 2022, superimposing rush loading demand, The demand for terminals in 2022 is very strong.
Compared with photovoltaic, electric vehicles are TOC end products, and the budget is not rigid. As consumer goods, cars also have different marketing means, which is more flexible than the accounting mode of photovoltaic IRR, and the impact of cost rise is less. In terms of investment mode, photovoltaic is IRR and has high sensitivity to cost, but there is strong demand for users. Electric vehicles are completely TOC end business. Consumers buy cars in a multi-faceted way and consider the comprehensive indicators of price, performance, exterior decoration, interior decoration and other aspects. At the same time, after the guidance price increases, manufacturers can also hedge the rise of costs by sending insurance, lifelong free charging and other methods. Considering the low sensitivity of medium and high-end models to the purchase price and the buffer of orders in hand, we maintain the sales expectation of 6 million electric vehicles in China in 2022, in which the proportion of personal consumption is expected to further increase, and the consumption structure is inclined to high-end models.
Investment suggestion: Q1, the core company of electric vehicles, has a brilliant performance, and its valuation has dropped to the bottom. The high outlook continues in 2022, and the leader is expected to increase by 80-100%. We continue to look at the leader of electric vehicles in an all-round way. The first main line is optimistic about the battery link of profit restoration in 2022, with a good long-term pattern, superimposed energy storage and holdings, the leaders Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) , Byd Company Limited(002594) , and pay attention to Sunwoda Electronic Co.Ltd(300207) , Jiangsu Azure Corporation(002245) , The second main line: battery technology upgrading, high nickel ternary ( Ningbo Ronbay New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(688005) , Cngr Advanced Material Co.Ltd(300919) , Beijing Easpring Material Technology Co.Ltd(300073) , focus on Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co.Ltd(603799) ), structural parts ( Shenzhen Kedali Industry Co.Ltd(002850) ), lithium ferromanganese ( Shenzhen Dynanonic Co.Ltd(300769) ), additives ( Jiangsu Cnano Technology Co.Ltd(688116) ); The third article is the leading of the continuous shortage: the diaphragm ( Hongda Xingye Co.Ltd(002002) 812 Nuode Investment Co.Ltd(600110) ); Article 4: lithium is in short supply and the price is higher than expected. It is suggested to pay attention to Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) , Tianqi Lithium Corporation(002466) , Yongxing Special Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002756) , Youngy Co.Ltd(002192) , Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Co.Ltd(000792) , Tibet Mineral Development Co.Ltd(000762) , Suzhou Ta&A Ultra Clean Technology Co.Ltd(300390) , etc.
Risk warning: price competition exceeds market expectations; The price of raw materials is unstable, affecting the profit margin; The growth rate of investment declined; Epidemic impact.
