Market review: this week, the mechanical equipment index fell 1.42%, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index fell 2.14%, and the gem index fell 2.80%. Mechanical equipment ranked 15th in all 28 industries. After excluding negative values, the valuation level of the machinery industry is 22.0 (overall method). The top three sectors in the machinery industry this week are injection molding machines, lasers and oil and gas development equipment; The top three segments with year to date growth are oil and gas development equipment, instruments and meters and rail transit equipment.
Zhou concern: the medium and long-term plan for hydrogen energy has been issued, and the equipment links have fully benefited
The national development and Reform Commission issued the medium and long-term plan for hydrogen energy, and the development of hydrogen energy industry was accelerated. On March 23, the national development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration jointly issued the medium and long term plan for the development of hydrogen energy industry (20212035), which made it clear that hydrogen energy is the key direction of strategic emerging industry and a new growth point for building a green and low-carbon industrial system and industrial transformation and upgrading. The development goal is to have about 50000 fuel cell vehicles by 2025, and deploy and build a number of hydrogen refueling stations. Hydrogen production from renewable energy has reached 1 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 00000 tons / year, which has become an important part of new hydrogen energy consumption and achieved carbon dioxide emission reduction of 1-2 million tons / year.
Policies drive the development of the whole industrial chain of hydrogen energy, and equipment and core parts need to be replaced by domestic products. At present, China’s hydrogen energy industry is in the early stage of development. Compared with the international advanced level, there are still problems such as weak industrial innovation ability, low level of technical equipment and dependence on import of some key core parts and basic materials. It is necessary to promote the innovative development of the whole industrial chain of hydrogen energy “production, storage and transmission”. (1) Hydrogen production: hydrogen production from fossil energy is the mainstream technical route at present. In the future, China will give priority to the utilization of industrial by-product hydrogen in coking, chlor alkali, propane dehydrogenation and other industrial agglomeration areas according to local conditions; In areas rich in renewable resources, demonstrate hydrogen production from renewable energy and explore ways to reduce the cost of hydrogen production. (2) Hydrogen storage: at present, it mainly focuses on high-pressure hydrogen storage. Type IV hydrogen storage bottles have been mass produced abroad, and China is still in its infancy; In the future, it will also promote the industrialized application of low-temperature liquid hydrogen storage and transportation, and explore the application of storage and transportation methods such as solid state, cryogenic high-pressure and organic liquid. (3) Hydrogenation station: equipment investment accounts for about 60% of the construction cost of hydrogenation station. At present, compressors, hydrogenation machines and other equipment still rely on imports. Localization substitution is expected to reduce the cost and promote the layout of hydrogenation station.
There is huge space for the development of fuel cells, and Chinese equipment enterprises have accelerated their layout. In the context of dual carbon, fuel cells have good development potential. According to the prediction of GGII, the scale of China’s fuel cell market will reach 23 billion yuan by 2023. The plan proposes to accelerate the technological innovation of proton exchange membrane fuel cells, develop key materials, improve the main performance indicators and mass production capacity, and continuously improve the reliability, stability and durability of fuel cells. Support the development of new fuel cells and other technologies. At present, China’s fuel cell system enterprises have mass production capacity, but some core parts still rely on imports. With the acceleration of localization, the cost of fuel cells is expected to continue to decline.
Investment suggestion: we are optimistic about the development prospect of the hydrogen energy industry chain driven by policies. In the initial stage of industrial development, the equipment field is expected to become the first profit-making link. It is suggested to pay attention to Lanzhou Ls Heavy Equipment Co.Ltd(603169) , Beijing Jingcheng Machinery Electric Company Limited(600860) , CIMC Enrico, Zhangjiagang Furui Special Equipment Co.Ltd(300228) ; Houpu Clean Energy Co.Ltd(300471) , which is the beneficial object in the field of hydrogenation station; Compressor suppliers Moon Environment Technology Co.Ltd(000811) , Fujian Snowman Co.Ltd(002639) ; Wuxi Lead Intelligent Equipment Co.Ltd(300450) and other beneficial targets in the field of fuel cells.
Risk warning: covid-19 pneumonia epidemic situation is repeated; The degree of policy promotion is less than expected; The growth rate of manufacturing investment was lower than expected; Intensified industry competition, etc.
