Core view
Macro: the United Nations lowered its 22-year global economic growth forecast to 2.6%, and the United States restored 352 tariff exemptions for Chinese imports. Affected by the conflict between Russia and Ukraine and the changes in macroeconomic policies of various countries in recent months, the United Nations Conference on Trade and development lowered the global economic growth forecast in 2022 to 2.6%. Recently, the United States also announced the resumption of 352 tariff exemptions for Chinese imports. Referring to the data of us customs in 2021, the amount of exempted products is about US $61.9 billion, accounting for about 12% of China's total exports to the United States.
Steel: the overseas situation and epidemic prevention and control have disturbed the supply, and the infrastructure demand has been strengthened under the steady growth policy. This week, the output of rebar increased slightly by 1.45% month on month, and the consumption increased significantly by 7.00% month on month. The resumption of production of steel enterprises continued this week. According to Mysteel, the capacity utilization rate of rebar in the process of this week was 73.2%, with a slight increase of 1.32pct month on month. The national development and Reform Commission will maintain the normal order of the market and ensure the stable operation of iron ore and coal prices, which may benefit steel enterprises on the cost side.
New energy metals: nickel prices are high, and the demand for nickel supply substitution in Russia is rising. In terms of lithium, the price of 56.5% domestic lithium hydroxide this week was 489500 yuan / ton, a significant increase of 1.87% month on month; The price of domestic 99.5% battery grade lithium carbonate was 503000 yuan / ton, a slight increase of 0.2% month on month, and the growth rate slowed down. This week, the month on month ratio of MB standard cobalt increased slightly, and the month on month ratio of Co3O4 increased significantly. In terms of nickel, the spot settlement price of LME nickel this week was US $37115 / ton, down 23.04% month on month.
Industrial metals: the conflict between Russia and Ukraine may affect 6% of the global aluminum supply, and high-end electronic copper foil is still monopolized by Japan. This week, TC / RC of copper smelters increased significantly by 7.70% month on month. The global refined copper output and primary refined copper output decreased slightly in November month on month. The operating rate of electrolytic aluminum remained at a high level of 90% in January, with a slight increase of 1.24pct month on month; In terms of inventory, LME copper inventory increased significantly month on month and LME aluminum inventory decreased significantly month on month; In terms of price, the current price of LME copper increased slightly by 1.03% month on month, and the current price of LME aluminum increased slightly by 0.99% month on month; In terms of profits, the profits of electrolytic aluminum in Xinjiang, Yunnan, Shandong and Inner Mongolia increased month on month this week.
Kim: Europe and the United States increased sanctions and risks supported precious metals to rise again. This week, Comex gold price decreased significantly by 4.01% month on month, and the number of non-commercial net long positions in gold decreased significantly by 4.59% month on month; This week, the yield of us 10-year Treasury bond was 2.14%, up slightly by 0.14pct month on month.
Investment proposal and investment object
Steel: Steel: in terms of plain steel, it is suggested to focus on the one hand, on the one hand, on the proposed Citic Pacific Special Steel Group Co.Ltd(000708) \ ( Hubei Shuanghuan Science And Technology Stock Co.Ltd(000707) 070707070707070708, buy in, Hubei Shuanghuan Science And Technology Stock Co.Ltd(000707) 07070708, buy in, buy in, buy in, buy in, buy in, buy in), and ( Angang Steel Company Limited(000898) , not rated) Shanxi Taigang Stainless Steel Co.Ltd(000825) ( Shanxi Taigang Stainless Steel Co.Ltd(000825) , not rated); In terms of special steel, it is suggested to pay attention to special material suppliers of new energy nuclear power and wind power, such as Zhejiang Jiuli Hi-Tech Metals Co.Ltd(002318) ( Zhejiang Jiuli Hi-Tech Metals Co.Ltd(002318) , buy).
New energy metals: it is suggested to pay attention to enterprises rich in lithium resources such as Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) ( Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) , not rated), Yongxing Special Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002756) ( Yongxing Special Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002756) , buy), Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Co.Ltd(000792) ( Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Co.Ltd(000792) , not rated), etc.
Copper: it is suggested to pay attention to Zijin Mining Group Company Limited(601899) ( Zijin Mining Group Company Limited(601899) , buy); And lithium battery copper foil manufacturers: Guangdong Jiayuan Technology Co.Ltd(688388) ( Guangdong Jiayuan Technology Co.Ltd(688388) , not rated), Nuode Investment Co.Ltd(600110) ( Nuode Investment Co.Ltd(600110) , not rated), etc.
Aluminum: it is suggested to pay attention to Yunnan Aluminium Co.Ltd(000807) ( Yunnan Aluminium Co.Ltd(000807) , not rated), Henan Mingtai Al.Industrial Co.Ltd(601677) ( Henan Mingtai Al.Industrial Co.Ltd(601677) , buy), and high-end aluminum enterprises Shandong Nanshan Aluminium Co.Ltd(600219) ( Shandong Nanshan Aluminium Co.Ltd(600219) , not rated).
, industry rating: , recommendation: ɛ ɛ
Risk tips
Macroeconomic growth slowed down; Price fluctuation of raw materials
