Core view
According to the reporter of Hainan Daily from the Department of Commerce of Hainan Province, in the first two months of this year, the total sales of 10 outlying island duty-free stores in Hainan reached 12.873 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 33%. Among them, tax-free sales reached 11.946 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 38%; The number of duty-free shoppers reached 2126600, a year-on-year increase of 36%; The number of duty-free purchases was 12.623 million, a year-on-year increase of 53%. In terms of offshore duty-free, sales have been impacted since March. From March 1 to 23, the total sales of 10 offshore duty-free stores in Hainan were 2.296 billion yuan, a year-on-year downward trend.
Since March, the impact of the epidemic in some parts of China has been repeated. Hainan has been affected by the epidemic, and the tax-free sales of outlying islands are facing a certain impact. From March 3, China free Sanya International duty-free City suspended its business in cooperation with epidemic prevention work, and then issued a notice on the evening of March 7. From March 8, phase I and phase II of CDF Sanya International duty-free city resumed business. From March 1 to 27 (excluding some incomplete data), the number of inbound and outbound flights at Haikou Meilan Airport reached 7407, a decrease of 35.51% over the same period last year; The number of passengers transported reached 896200, a decrease of 44.54% over the same period last year. The number of inbound and outbound flights at Sanya Phoenix Airport reached 4484, a decrease of 52.44% over the same period last year.
The short-term impact does not change the logic of long-term development. With the gradual improvement of the epidemic situation, the tax-free industry is expected to accelerate its recovery. The scattered recurrence of the epidemic not only has a negative impact on the passenger flow into the island, but also has an impact on the normal operation of some duty-free stores. We believe that the short-term negative impact will not change the long-term development logic of industrial policy support + rapid improvement of their own service quality. The national tourism development plan of the 14th five year plan shows the importance attached to the development of tourism and tax-free industry. At the same time, it has issued relief policies such as tax relief to support the development of tourism, catering, hotel, tax-free and other industries seriously affected by the epidemic, so as to provide strong support for the recovery of the prosperity of corresponding industries. Meanwhile, China's New Coronavirus pneumonia treatment plan (trial version ninth) has been released. In some cases, the shortening of isolation time, the application of antigen detection, the adjustment of the isolation / discharge standard, and the increase of Pfizer oral small molecules in treatment methods have shown the rapid progress of the country in the comprehensive prevention and control of epidemic situation and the treatment of epidemic. From the perspective of duty-free enterprises, while strictly grasping the epidemic prevention and control, the 10 outlying island duty-free stores in Hainan have actively launched a series of consumption promotion activities to enhance the popularity of the outlying island duty-free market. Tax free enterprises and relevant departments in Hainan have joined hands to set up tax-free zones on outlying islands on the home page of the "Haiyi office" platform to improve the convenience of tax-free shopping. According to the data of this year's Spring Festival, during this year's Spring Festival (from January 31 to February 6), the sales of duty-free shops in Hainan outlying islands exceeded 2.1 billion yuan in seven days, with a year-on-year increase of more than 150%. With the gradual improvement of the epidemic situation, the tax-free industry is expected to accelerate the recovery.
Investment advice
The recurrence of the epidemic situation in some parts of the country has had an impact on the tax-free sales in Hainan in March. However, the short-term negative impact does not change the development logic of long-term policy support of the industry + rapid improvement of its own service quality. At present, the 14th five year plan for tourism development and relief policies such as tax relief have formed support for tax-free, tourism and other industries. At the same time, the launch of the new covid-19 diagnosis and treatment scheme reflects the country's rapid progress in comprehensive epidemic prevention and control and treatment. In the future, with the improvement of the epidemic situation, the prosperity of the industry is expected to continue to rise, and the performance of duty-free sales in Hainan is expected to achieve sustained high growth.
Risk tips
Tip 1: repeated epidemic impact;
Tip 2: macroeconomic fluctuations;
Tip 3: policy fluctuation risk.
